The Oil Drum

During the past seven years, TheOilDrum.com has hosted analysis and discussion surrounding the possibility and implications of a near term peak in global oil production and importance of energy to society in general. Out of the ~8,500 articles posted here (all searchable by keyword in upper left), the list below comprises what each author considered some of their most relevant content.

The list is in alphabetical order, by last name of Oil Drum contributor. Click on the author's name to go to their list of selected articles. At the end of each section, a link is given to the complete list of all articles by that author.

List of Authors Gail the Actuary Ugo Bardi Art Berman Jason Bradford Joules Burn François Cellier David Clarke Samuel Foucher Nicole Foss Big Gav Prof. Goose Nate Hagens Phil Hart Rembrandt Koppelaar Rune Likvern Euan Mearns David Murphy Heading Out Jérôme à Paris Engineer-Poet Robert Rapier Luis de Sousa Stuart Staniford Jeff Vail Chris Vernon List of Articles Gail the Actuary

Oil Limits, Recession, and Bumping Up Against the Growth Ceiling.
Write up of an introductory presentation, explaining our how limited oil supply is causing recession and lower economic growth.
Are We Reaching Limits to Growth?
Looks at our current financial and other problems, in relationship to Limits to Growth (from the 1972 book by that name).
IEO 2011: A Misleadingly Optimistic Energy Forecast by the EIA
Explains why the latest official forecast of the US Energy Information Administration appears optimistic.
Kidding Ourselves About Middle East/North Africa Oil Production.
Why claims about future high oil production from Middle East/North Africa are likely overstated.
The Link Between Peak Oil and Peak Debt - Part 1
Why limited oil supply is likely to be associated with declining debt availability.
What's Behind Egypt's Problems?
Explains the connection between declining oil exports and Egypt's "Arab Spring."
Is It Really Possible to Decouple Energy Growth from GDP Growth?
Explores why growth in energy efficiency seems to have stopped after 2000. Also see Thoughts on Why Energy Use and CO2 Emissions are Rising as Fast as GDP
The US Electric Grid: Will it be Our Undoing? – Revisited
Why the US electrical transmission system has so many challenges, and the many obstacles to improving it.
Social Security and Medicare Funding Issues: Even Worse when One Considers Resource Constraint
Why Social Security and Medicare funding issues are even worse, when Peak Oil is considered.
What Can We Learn from Gift Economies?
Campfire post relating to a system where individuals gain status not by what they have, but by what they give away.
There is plenty of oil but . . .
There is a huge amount of oil that theoretically can be extracted, but the question is whether the cost will be cheap enough for us to be able to afford to extract it. If the oil is too expensive to extract, the shortage of oil seems to cause a recession, similar to what we are having now.
Scientific American's Path to Sustainability: Let's Think about the Details
Scientific American presents "A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030" in its November 2010 issue. I explain why it wouldn't work.
Some Cautionary Thoughts about Wind
Offers ten reasons why wind is not as an attractive an option as many think it is.
Delusions of Finance: Where We are Headed
Explanation of why my financial forecasts at the beginning of 2008 turned out to be correct.
Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008
A financial forecast for 2008 that in retrospect has proven accurate.
Our World Is Finite: Is This a Problem?
Post written before I became an Oil Drum staff member that lays out may of the major issues that I continue to write about.
Read more posts by Gail the Actuary. (Real name, Gail Tverberg)
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Ugo Bardi

"Peak Civilization": The Fall of the Roman Empire
A post attempting to apply system dynamics to the fall of the Roman Empire which - as far as I know - has not been done, so far.
Cassandra's curse: how "The Limits to Growth" was demonized
With its scenarios of civilization collapse, the book shocked the world perhaps more than Cassandra had shocked her fellow Trojan citizens when she had predicted the fall of their city to the Achaeans. Just as Cassandra was not believed, so it was for the "Limits to Growth" which, today, is still widely seen as a thoroughly flawed study, wrong all along.
The Universal Mining Machine
Why can’t we build a universal mining machine here, on Earth, and stop worrying about running out of mineral resources?
Mind-sized Hubbert
What is it, exactly, that causes production peaks for oil and for other non renewable resources?
The dark side of coal - some historical insights on energy and the economy
In this post, I start to tell the story of coal in Italy and how the fortunes of the country went in parallel with those of coal well until mid 20th century.
The church, the peak, and my old watch
A post about leaving something that lasts a long time and that doesn't need precious resources that can't be replaced.
The post-peak car
A fantastic account of how a 1970s Fiat 500 has been retrofitted with batteries and an electric motor to create the Post Peak Car.
How to Drive your Elephant - Dealing with Complex Problems
How elephant driving may be seen as as a metaphor for controlling complex systems.
Peak Minerals
A post taken from a report co-authored with Marco Pagani which examines the world production of 57 minerals reported in the database of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and makes the case for the peak and decline of many of these minerals in the near future.
Peak Caviar
"Peak Caviar" is another confirmation of how common the "Hubbert" behavior is. It doesn't matter if a resource is theoretically renewable, as sturgeons and whales are. If sturgeons or whales are killed much faster than they can reproduce, then they behave as a non renewable resource; just as crude oil.
Read more posts by Ugo Bardi
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Arthur E. Berman

Arthur Berman talks about Shale Gas
McMoRan Davy Jones Gas Discovery
Co-written with Joshua H. Rosenfeld, this post looks at a significant discovery in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico by the McMoRan Exploration Company that may contain 2-6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas reserves.
Shale Gas—Abundance or Mirage? Why The Marcellus Shale Will Disappoint Expectations
Shale gas plays in the United States are commercial failures and shareholders in public exploration and production (E&P) companies are the losers. This conclusion falls out of a detailed evaluation of shale-dominated company financial statements and individual well decline curve analyses.
BP Macondo Blowout - Static Top Kill vs. Bottom Kill: Weighing the Risks
A post co-written with William Semple.
Is the Drilling Moratorium Long Enough? No, Not Really
The key issues around the drilling moratorium as I see them.
What caused the Deepwater Horizon disaster?
The blowout and oil spill on the Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico was caused by a flawed well plan that did not include enough cement between the 7-inch production casing and the 9 7/8-inch protection casing. The presumed blowout preventer (BOP) failure is an important but secondary issue.
ExxonMobil’s Acquisition of XTO Energy: The Fallacy of the Manufacturing Model in Shale Plays
Most analysts believe that the ExxonMobil acquisition of XTO Energy (XTO) represents a dramatic shift in strategy by the premier exploration and production (E&P) company, and a validation of shale plays. It is neither. The move represents a considered and deliberate choice that acknowledges diminished opportunities for the oil giant to add and replace reserves.
Read more posts by Arthur Berman
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Jason Bradford

The Thermodynamics of Local Foods
I wrote this in response to a slew of media attention that argued against local foods. However, based on thermodynamics, only a predominantly local food system will be sustainable in the long run.
Ecological Economics and the Food System
This is a summary of energy use in the U.S. food system placed in the context of ecological economics. Our current food system is structured inappropriately for long-term viability, and the kinds of shifts required to make it more enduring are discussed.
Save it for the Combine
Few people understand how critical certain technologies are to their survival and way of life. The combine allows one person to harvest the food for hundreds, saving enormous labor while using liquid fuels. I argue that any rationing of liquid fuels or use of biofuels be prioritized for the combine.
The Food System and Public Policy
Many in the U.S. like to think we live in a free market economy. But when it comes to development of the food system public policy explains much of what we see.
The Food System and Resilience
Resilience is a concept from ecology that can be applied to any complex system. When the current food system is examined using a resilience framework it is found to be very fragile. The essay concludes by outlining the possible emergence of more resilient food systems given new economic and energetic realities.
Energy Descent and Agricultural Population
This article includes a graph that combines data on energy use and percent rural population, showing that more energy in a society lowers the proportion engaged in farming. Given the shape of this relationship, can we make some educated speculations about shifting labor demographics in highly industrialized nations during energy descent?
Scenario 2020: The Future of Food in Mendocino County
I believe there’s the possibility of a near-term collapse of complex societies given a financial shock, perhaps precipitated or exacerbated by political and energy crises. This photo essay conveys this potential from an imagined future, with an emphasis on the food system.
I have an interest in economics, in the broad sense, of how and why people and societies chose to invest and consume, and what this means for resources and the environment. The following three essays share a common theme: resources are only constrained in a world with exponentially growing demand for more stuff. Reducing demand is more important than increasing supply, and ultimately we have no choice. However, conscientious curtailment comes up against both engrained pyscho-social reward systems, which are largely explored in the first two essays, and the structure of our financial system, which is touched upon in the third.
Finding Healthy Addictions
Dopamine Returned on Energy Invested (DREI)?
Advice to Pres. Obama( #6): Beware the Hungry Ghosts
Read more posts by Jason Bradford
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Joules Burn

Khurais Me A River
An early look at the development of the Khurais oilfield in Saudi Arabia using satellite imagery, reviewing past efforts to produce from the field.
Ghawar Numerology: Drilling in Uthmaniyah
An animated history of the drilling sequence in one part of the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia's Ghawar Isn't Sinking (but has apparently moved)
A critical look at satellite imagery analysis which reached some faulty conclusions regarding the behavior of the Ghawar field upon depletion.
Abqaiq and Eat It Too
A look at recent developments in the giant Abqaiq field in Saudi Arabia using satellite imagery combined with published reports.
Local Scientist Splits Water, Saves World, Gets On TV
A skeptical look at recent claims of a breakthrough in water electrolysis to produce hydrogen.
Five Easy Leases: Ghawar's Discovery Wells
An in-depth look at the first wells drilled in the five operational areas for the Ghawar field, including their current status.
Who Killed the Electric Gas Tank?
A look at claims of a breakthrough in ultracapacitors for energy storage in electric vehicles.
Saudi Aramco Loses Count, Drills Too Many Wells In Ghawar
An satellite imagery analysis of Saudi drilling activity in the southern-most part of the Ghawar field, showing that more has been going on than publicly revealed.
Lessons Left Unlearnt From 2003 Gulf of Mexico Near-Spill
A look in the US Materials Management Service datafiles revealing a number of accidents and near misses which preceded the massive BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Crude Confessions: Massive Saudi Oil Spill in 1993?
A look at how Saudi oil is transported out of the country in the context of claims of a secret oil spill.
Read more posts by Joules Burn
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François Cellier

Ecological Footprint, Energy Consumption, and the Looming Collapse
This article explores dynamic relations governing population growth, resource depletion, and world economics by means of a few simple modeling and simulation exercises.
Is the 2000 Watt Society Sustainable in Switzerland?
In this presentation, we discuss whether the 2000 Watt Society is at all sustainable, and if so, what it will take to keep energy supply at that level after the end of ample and cheap fossil fuels.
The Slavery of Oil
A review of a proposed methodology that would allow me to quantify the price level of crude oil at which our economies will stall.
Read more posts by François Cellier
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David Clarke

The Failure of Networked Systems: The Repercussions of Systematic Risk Revisited
Cascading collapse and why the corporate drive towards increasing efficiencies could be driving our interacting networked systems towards this mode of collapse.
The Networking of Resource Production: Do the Networks Give us Warnings when They are About to Fail?
The flaw in the techno-cornucopian dream: Modeling why and how a networked resource-extraction system fails.
Read more posts by David Clarke
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Samuel Foucher

Analysis of Decline Rates
This post offers a kind of reverse engineering of what numbers could be behind the long and detailed IEA decline analysis in their last report (2008 IEA WEO). A tentative decline structure for the post-peak Super-Giant and Giants oilfields is offered as well as a possible scenario for future production.
Peak Demand or Peak Consumption? A Look at OECD Oil Demand
In this post I show that the key driver behind the oil price increase since 2002 has been excess demand combined with unresponsive supply.
Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.
Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts
Having a good estimate of the decline rate of the resource base (most estimates are ranging between 2 and 6%/year) is fundamental for the precision of supply forecasts derived from megaproject database.
Saudi Arabia: An Attempt to Link Oil Discoveries, Proven Reserves and Production Data
This article is an attempt to apply the Hybrid Shock Model (HSM) on Saudi Arabia's oil production. In a nutshell, the HSM is trying to model the observed production profile from the discovery curve by simulating the different phases involved in the development of oilfields (initial discovery, planning, build, maturity).
Why We (Really) May Have Entered an Oil Production Plateau
We know that some countries (around 56) have seen their production peaked (also called type III depletion). The remaining group consists of 17 countries that have the potential to grow or maintain their current production (the type II group). I propose to apply the HL technique only on the total production from the the type III group and try to assess the future production decline coming from that group.
An Update on Mexico's Oil Production--The Rapid Collapse of Cantarell by the Numbers
Last year, I expressed my concerns about the eventual impact of a rapid collapse of Cantarell on Mexico's oil production. The last production numbers from PEMEX seems to confirm the rapid decline of Cantarell as well as the inability of the Mexican to rapidly bring new production online.
The Loglet Analysis
Most peakoilers on this site have been introduced to the logistic curve through the famous prediction of King Hubbert on the Lower-48 production. Fewer maybe knows that curve fitting techniques have been extensively applied by people that we may qualify as cornucopians. Ironically, the logistic curve is also used as a prediction tool for market share and technology substitution.
A Different Way to Perform the Hubbert Linearization
A quick post about a different manipulation of the logistic differential equation. By using the first derivative, we get a new way to perform the Hubbert linearization. Some results are given on Norway and the US oil production.
Norway and the Parabolic Fractal Law
Norway can be considered as the poster child of the Hubbert curve modeling approach with a production profile that is remarkably close to the logistic curve.
Read more posts by Samuel Foucher
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Nicole Foss

Entropy and Empire This article is a discussion of the rise and fall of empire (in thermodynamic terms) and the process of imperial succession.
The Resurgence of Risk Resurgence of Risk is a description of the developing credit crunch from its inception - an explanation of how we arrived at this financial crisis and where we are headed.
Smart Metering and Smarter Metering Electricity metering is a significant means of addressing excess demand, but the high-tech metering solutions being proposed miss many opportunities because they pay no attention to psychological drivers.
A MacKenzie Valley Pipedream? This piece assesses the prospects for the construction of a MacKenzie Valley pipeline through the Canadian north.
Anaerobic Digestion in Ontario - A Regulatory Obstacle Course Renewable energy technologies wishing to connect to the grid face significant regulatory obstacles that add so much to project costs that project viability is threatened.
Read more posts by Nicole Foss
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Big Gav

Concentrating On The Important Things - Solar Thermal Power
While we spend a lot of time talking about traditional energy sources based on depleting resources that are extracted from the ground, I think its important to remember that the fastest growing sources of energy are solar and wind, and that these will never run out.
Tapping The Source: The Power Of The Oceans
A post examining the use of artificial islands to collect wind, wave, ocean current and solar power in the tropics, along with a more unusual energy source - harnessing the difference in water temperatures between the warm surface and the cold depths using a technique called OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion).
Geothermal Energy: Geothermia
Crossposted from my blog Peak Energy as the subject of geothermal power has cropped up in the comments a few times lately.
Floating Offshore Wind Power
An update on a post I did last year on the potential for floating offshore wind power, which looked at a number of different prototypes at various stages of development.
The Limits To Scenario Planning
A review of some common misconceptions about the Limits to Growth book.
Iraq's Oil: The Greatest Prize Of All
In this post I'll outline why I believe that Iraq probably has the world's largest oil reserves - or, as Daniel Yergin once said of the middle east, it is "the greatest single prize in all history".
Natural Gas In Australia - How Long Will It Last?
In this post I have a look at how much gas Australia has and how long it will last under a variety of scenarios.
Coal Seam Gas In Australia
In this post I look at recent events in the gas industry and what they mean for Australian gas production in future.
The Hydrogen Economy and Peak Platinum
A comprehensive review of the issues involved in the "hydrogen economy".
Hubbert: King Of The Technocrats
In this post I explore the Technocracy movement and Hubbert's role in it.
Locabucks: Are local currencies a way to escape the liquidity trap?
I look at the concept of local currencies (or "locabucks" as I'm now dubbing them), an idea which has its roots in the Great Depression as a mechanism for escaping the liquidity trap - and thus might be relevant again in the not-too distant future if present trends continue.
Terra Preta: Biochar and the MEGO Effect
In this post I have a look at modern day techniques to produce terra preta (often called biochar or agrichar) which have the potential to increase soil fertility, generate energy and sequester carbon all at the same time.
Buckminster Fuller's Critical Path
A review of Buckminster Fuller's last work, Critical Path.
Is It Time For a 4 Day Working Week?
In this post I look at various proposals to reduce the amount of time we spend at work, as a way of addressing energy, environmental and other issues facing us.
Peak Oil And The Tea Party Movement
In this post I have a look at the boost this (peak oil) is likely to give to populist politics and some of the possibilities for addressing this.
Read more posts by Big Gav
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Prof. Goose

A Pretty Stunning Graph of World Cement Production (and China is Certainly Using It)
This post updates Stuart's post about this two years ago (and yes, it's still a graph that will blow you away!) with two more years of USGS cement data, 2006 and 2007.
From the Editor's Desk: Peak Oil, Heretical Thought, Complexity, and the Future of The Oil Drum
Lately, I have been thinking a lot about the direction of The Oil Drum. Much of my thinking on this set of ideas has been brought about by some soul-searching, trying to understand the problems we face as a community, and then figuring out how to "positively push the future."
Peak Oil, Persuasion, and the World Meme
What insights can we claim from psychology to get those we care about, and even those we don't, to dig deeper to get to an understanding of the pillars of the problems we face, instead of trying to buy aluminum siding for a house slowly falling in on itself?
Will Canada Fuel Fortress America?
Will Canada complacently allow the US to pillage her resources as energy supplies become more scarce?
Why the US Political System Is Unable to React to Peak Oil: Institutions
I thought I would bring some pieces of the political puzzle together into a post on why I believe the US, at least at the federal level, will be overly slow to react to the problems of peak oil in both the short and long term.
Was That Really Five Years?
A summary and some thoughts about the fifth year of the Oil Drum's existence.
The Oil Drum Celebrates Its First Year Today
Read more posts by Prof. Goose (Real name, Kyle Saunders)
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Nate Hagens

The Psychological and Evolutionary Roots of Resource Consumption A (longish) exploration of how our evolved neural wetware predisposes us to compete for status and also allows us to be hijacked by novelty items/activities, many of which use alot of energy.
A Net Energy Parable: Why is ERoEI Important? A story about how energy return on investment impacts an imaginary society of Sasquatches - highlighting the importance of biohpysical metrics for a civilization.
Peak Oil: A View from Planet Talos An alien perspective on the resource depletion/human nature intersection.
Living for the Moment While Devaluing the Future An examination of why we have evolved mechanisms to steeply favor the present over the future and why this is relevant to questions of resource depletion and environmental problems.
Peak Oil - Whom to Believe CERAiously-Part 1 Highlights of the main differences between the energy cornucopians and those predicting a near term peak in oil production.
Peak Oil - Why Smart Folks Disagree Part 2 More detail on the above post on supply side differences between energy optimists and realists.
Peak Oil - Believe it or Not - Part 3 An overview of human cognitive biases that contribute to disagreement on resource depletion/climate change.
Can We Be Happy Using Less Energy? Uhh Yes! An look at decreasing returns to more consumtion.
Old Sunlight vs Ancient Sunlight - An Analysis of Home Heating and Wood Measuring the scale of US standing forest relative to US fossil fuel use for heat.
".......Dammit - We Wasted a Day of Sunlight"
Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock
Peak Oil and Reflexivity and Peak Oil Soros theory of reflexivity, in light of oil depletion.
Hedge Funds, Hurricanes and Energy Markets An overview of volatility and the small size of energy markets relative to financial capital.
The 2008 IEA WEO Review (#1 in a Series) The first in a series examining the claims of the IEA annual energy report.
Advice to Obama (#2) Yes We Can But Will We? A letter to the new President, outlining biophysical (supply) and evolutionary (demand) type thinking.
Campfire
What Do We Tell Our Children A letter I wrote to an 8 year old boy who asked about oil running out.
I Don't Know A short piece looking at why we are so confident, even when we know very little.
I Dream of GINI - Wealth Inequality During Resource Depletion
Peak Oil, Peak Credit and Investments - So What the Hell Does One Do? An initial pass at rewriting the Capital Asset Pricing Model assumptions
Whither The Oil Drum? An introspection on the purpose of sites like this, when the meme of peak oil has been generally accepted.
Enter the Elephant A look at why facts matter very little in changing peoples behavior.
2010: The Year for Making ContactNew Years resolutions for myself, in light of current conditions.
Dear Candidate-What Will You Do if Growth is Over?
Read more posts by Nate Hagens
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Phil Hart

Meet Trev: A two-seater renewable energy vehicle
I believe there is instead a bright future for a spectrum of 'micro' electric vehicles, from battery powered bicycles up to compact size cars, including this new concept car named Trev (Two-seater Renewable Energy Vehicle).
International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
In World Energy Outlook 2009, the International Energy Agency seems to have dropped a bombshell that has been quietly (and politely) ignored.
The Economics of Volatile Oil Prices
Considering the fundamental nature of oil supply and demand provides a coherent explanation not just for the rapid rise in oil prices, but also the dramatic fall.
The 2008 IEA WEO - Oil Reserves and Resources
Despite significant changes, the 2008 IEA report still relies on inflated estimates of reserves from OPEC countries, overplays the contribution of reserves growth due to technology and predicts the reversal of a decades long trend of declining oil discoveries.
Oil, House Prices, Credit? Three parts of the same story
The long forgotten 'oil crisis' of just a few months ago has been replaced by a full blown 'credit crisis' - related events that represent the unravelling of half a century of unsustainable trends in oil consumption and debt.
High-Tech Hitchhiking
Could a hitchhiking scheme for the iPhone era work in practice and change attitudes to hitching a ride?
How Technology Increases Oil Production
How can you double something and still have ten times less than you started with? The answer to this question will help us reassess claims that advances in oil field technology will postpone the peak in global oil production.
Oil Reserves: Where Ghawar goes, the rest of OPEC follows
In May 2007, the work of Stuart Staniford and Euan Mearns culminated in a new and unprecedented assessment of oil reserves in Ghawar, the world's largest oil field. This article combines their assessment with additional information sources, to produce a revised estimate of reserves in Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC countries.
Read more posts by Phil Hart
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Rembrandt Koppelaar

Carbon Capture and Storage: Economic Costs Revisited
The effects on coal power plant economics of CO2 emissions capture.
Carbon Capture and Storage: Energy Costs Revisited
The effects on coal power plant economics of CO2 emissions capture.
A primer on reserve growth part 1
What is reserve growth and why it is so difficult to measure?
A primer on reserve growth part 2
A summary of various reserve growth studies.
A primer on reserve growth part 3
A discussion on the reserve growth figures in the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000.
Are Reserves of the Largest US Coal Field Overstated by 50%?
A summary of the USGS 2009 reserve assessment of the largest U.S. coal field, Gilette in Wyoming.
Read more posts by Rembrandt Koppelaar
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Rune Likvern

Europe and Natural Gas - Are Tough Choices Ahead?
In this post, I present some graphs showing European historical natural gas consumption and supply, along with my estimates of future consumption and supply.
Trends in World Oil Supply/Consumption and Net Exports/Imports
In this post I briefly present the results from my analysis of absolute and relative trends in world oil (all liquids) supply, consumption, net exports and net imports between 1980 and 2009.
Has OECD oil consumption peaked?
I examine similarities and differences in oil consumption patterns of OECD and Non-OECD countries and offer my view as to what the future may hold.
IEA WEO 2008 - NGLs to the Rescue?
In this post, I will document that there is good reason to believe that the IEA WEO 2008 projections in the reference scenario overshoots the likely world production of NGLs by as much as 35 - 50 % by 2030.
Has Fossil Fuel Consumption Within EU Peaked?
As this post will show the likelihood that the EU’s fossil fuel consumption has peaked, back in 1979, is now very real. It will also compare the degree of net fossil fuel self-sufficiency between the EU and the USA as of 2007.
Why UK Natural Gas Prices Will Move North of 100p/Therm This Winter
This post presents the development of the energy mix for the UK, and how the UK in less than a decade went from being a substantial energy exporter to a substantial net energy importer.
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Euan Mearns

Lies, Damned Lies and Government Oil Production Forecasts?
Back in 2005 the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) forecast 2.84 mbpd oil production in Norway during 2009. I pointed out their forecast was rather optimistic. 2.3 mbpd was what actually came to pass. The NPD were 23% too high.
The architecture of UK offshore oil production in relation to future production models
This post, written in November 2006 provided a forecast for UK oil production employing bottom up and top down methodology. My forecast for UK oil production in 2009 was 1.53 mbpd. 1.45 mbpd was what actually came to pass. I was 6% too high.
Flesh on the bones of Mexican oil production
With Cantarell in free fall, this post tried to take a more holistic view of Mexican oil production, pointing out that nitrogen once destined for Cantarell would now be diverted and injected into neighboring Ku-Maloob-Zaap complex.
Saudi production laid bare
This post was written to counter Stuart Staniford who claimed "Oil production peaked in Saudi Arabia in 2005. Recent sharp declines in production are involuntary and Saudi Arabia has switched from swing producer to supply constrained producer."
GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 1 - background and methodology)
GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 2 - results)
Ghawar reserves update and revisions (1)
Estimates of the remaining reserves and future production in Ghawar, the worlds largest oil field, based on data gleaned from the internet by a host of eager bloggers.
Crisis, what energy crisis?
An overview of the best posts from the 12 months preceding July 2007.
UK Energy Security
A look at possible impacts of UK oil and gas production decline together with a range of appropriate energy policy responses.
Saudi Arabia - production forecasts and reserves estimates
An oil production forecast for Saudi Arabia using both bottom up and top down (Hubbert linearisation) techniques. Peak was forecast to be 2011.
The European Gas Market
A comprehensive look at where Europe gets its natural gas from (34 charts and maps) including forecasts that incorporate peak Norwegian gas production and decline of the supergiant gas field at Groningen in Holland.
Daddy, will the lights be on at Christmas?
A follow up to the European Gas market incorporating a forecast for Norwegian gas production produced by Rune Likvern.
Why oil costs over $120 per barrel
An examination of some of the fundamental causes of the run in oil prices that took place in 2008.
Why oil costs over $130 per barrel: the decline of North Sea Oil
An overview of North Sea oil production decline and its role in the oil price run of 2008.
A State of Emergency
An examination of the plunge in UK oil and gas production and its impact on the UK economy ahead of the 2008 crash.
The Global Energy Crisis and its Role in the Pending Collapse of the Global Economy
The slides I presented at a talk to the Royal Society of Chemists in Aberdeen, November 2008.
The energy efficiency of energy procurement systems
An overview of the energy return on a number of energy procurement systems together with a look at contradictory policies being pursued by OECD governments.
The energy efficiency of cars
A simple look at the energy efficiency of various vehicle propulsion systems including all electric, internal combustion, fuel cells and bio fuel.
The financial return on energy invested
An experimental examination of links between energy production, consumption, prices and GDP.
The Chinese Coal Monster
An examination of the phenomenal growth in Chinese coal production and consumption. How long can this go on?
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David Murphy

EROI, Insidious Feedbacks, and the End of Economic Growth
In this post I attempt to answer the following question: Is a return to long term economic growth possible?
The True Value of Energy is the Net Energy
"The true value of energy to society is the net energy, which is that after the energy costs of getting and concentrating that energy are subtracted.” - H.T. Odum (1973)
Energy Transitions and the Next Paradigmatic Image of the World
The most important question is “what is the next paradigmatic image of the world?”
The Net Hubbert Curve, what does it mean?
Cutler Cleveland of Boston University has reported that the EROI of oil and gas extraction in the U.S. has decreased from 100:1 in the 1930’s to 30:1 in the 1970’s to roughly 11:1 as of 2000. What does this mean?
Further Evidence of the Influence of Energy on the US economy
Gail, Jeff Rubin, and now James Hamilton of the University of California – San Diego have produced literature correlating either this financial collapse or recessions more generally with peak oil and oil prices. The take-away message of their work is that oil prices played a fundamental role in causing the current recession and many previous recessions.
The Energy Return on Investment Threshold Due to the asymptotic nature of the curve at high EROIs, extraction/conversion processes with EROIs below 8 result in vastly different flows of net energy than those with higher EROIs.
Read more posts by David Murphy
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Heading Out

Heading Out has written a long series of articles under the title of Tech Talks, running on Sundays. These recently deal with oil and gas resource availability in various parts of the world. Earlier, the articles dealt with techniques for extraction of oil and gas. After the Deepwater Horizon blow out, he wrote a series of articles dealing with the approaches to sealing the well.
Link to a listing of posts by Heading Out. (Real name, Dave Summers)
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Jérôme à Paris

Ukraine vs Russia: Tales of pipelines and dependence
I wrote the text below in late December 2005, i.e. just before the Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict, which had been simmering for a few weeks, blew open into the consciousness of the West.
New Iraqi oil law: some facts on PSAs
A post refuting some assertions about the new Iraqi oil law, which will allow foreign companies to invest in the oil sector via PSAs (production sharing agreements).
A review of the underlying fundamentals of nuclear energy
A review of the pros and cons of the nuclear industry.
How To Get A Pipeline Built
A primer on why and how pipelines get built - which essentially means how they get financed.
Countdown to $200 oil meets Anglo Disease
Oil has played a fascinating side role in my Anglo Disease series, allowing the debt bubble to go on for much longer than expected. But now, instead, it is accelerating the crash. Let me take you through the whole cycle.
Fierce pride - yes it works! (or, first ever bank-financed offshore wind farm inaugurated!)
A post about the windfarm which I helped finance two years ago which is now up and running.
Countdown to $200 oil: $140 oil and speculation
There are A LOT of good reasons why oil prices are going up. Let me show you just a few.
The cost of wind, the price of wind, the value of wind
In this post I try to clear some of the confusion that surrounds the economics of wind power, as this is an issue that is often used by the opponents of wind to dismiss it.
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Engineer-Poet

Sustainability, Energy Independence and Agricultural Policy.
If we are going to use biofuels, we need to re-think everything involved with them; the results may not look like anything we've ever seen.
One engineer's advice for energy policy.
An open letter to Obama on the path the country should take.
H2CAR: Another blind alley
We can make enough biofuel to replace oil, but at a price we cannot pay; this is NOT a solution.
The Cogeneration Stopgap
Generating electricity along with heat can stretch fuel supplies and bridge to the future.
Energetics of cultivation: draft animals vs. combustion engines and the Haber process
Tractors are more efficient than horses, and we don't have to breed or train them.
Analysis of the Hon. John Dingell's carbon-tax proposal
Talking back to a Washington insider who kept Detroit in the gas-guzzler business, who I voted against when my city became part of his district, yet who is making some sense.
EPA economy ratings vs. the GM Volt: A square peg in a round hole
Ruminations on why MPG loses its relevance in a world of watt-hours per mile.
Photovoltaics: From Waste to Energy-maker
How the dumps of phosphate mining can yield the material to power much of the world.
Weathering the storm: making it through a natural-gas crisis.
Lifestyle changes which may slash fuel demand by changing habits.
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Robert Rapier

We Won't Stop Global Warming
I lay out the case that there isn’t really much we will do to stop the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Does the Hubbert Linearization Ever Work?
Debunking the use of the Hubbert Linearization as a tool for the prediction of peak oil.
Peak Oil Interview: Misconceptions, Replacing Oil, and False Solutions
An interview I did at that 2010 Global Footprint Network conference that discusses peak oil.
What If Gas Cost $100 a Gallon?
A thought experiment to see what people might really do in cases of extreme gasoline constraints.
A Critical Examination of Matt Simmons’ Claims on the Deepwater Spill
Debunking hyperbolic comments related to the deepwater spill.
The Switch to Winter Gasoline and a Primer on Gasoline Blends
Every year in late summer, you will start hearing references in the media about the conversion to winter gasoline. So what does this mean, and why does it make gasoline less expensive?
The Price of Energy
Just looking at the cost per BTU of many different energy sources. Sparking some interesting discussion.
The Case for Higher Gas Taxes (and Lower Income Taxes)
I make my case for why it would make sense to shift taxes from income to consumption of fossil fuels.
Ethanol Blend E85 Case Study: Iowa
Examines the question of why Iowa should use their own ethanol instead of exporting it.
The Next Five Years: Peak Lite and the Current Oil Picture
Seeking to explain why I think peak oil consequences would start to happen before peak oil.
Refining 201: The Assay Essay
Explaining what products are produced from crude oil, and how that relates to the assay of the crude.
Why Not Nuclear Power?
Exploring the case for expanded nuclear power.
The Future is Solar
Why I think solar power has to play a more important role in the future.
Cellulosic Ethanol vs. Biomass Gasification
Just explaining the difference in the two technologies that have seen the borderlines between them blurred.
German Military Study Warns of Potential Energy Crisis
A translation of major points from the Bundeswehr report.
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Luis de Sousa

World Oil Exports: A Comprehensive Projection
This article is a first simplistic (but comprehensive) assessment of World Oil Exports, here defined as the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries.
World Oil Exports [00] Introduction
A 2008 update on the original 2006 assessment.
World Oil Exports [01] Angola
The next post in the series focussing specifically on Angola's oil reserves.
World Oil Exports [02] Libya
Same as above except Libya this time.
A New Energy Policy for Europe
Wednesday the European Commission released a series of Communications proposing a new revolutionary Energy Policy attempting to address EU’s energy challenges for the XXI century. This is a set of first comments to such proposals.
Dialoguing with Dr. Peter Jackson of CERA: Is the Future of Oil Resources Secure?
Some reflections follow regarding Dr. Jackson’s arguments and understanding of the Hubbert’s Peak.
From sweet on the table to fuel in the tank: the millenary history of Sugar Cane
A dive into the fascinating history of a plant that shaped the World.
Marchetti's Curves
This is a brief account of the Energy Substitution Model developed by Cesare Marchetti in the 1970s at IIASA.
A few more thoughts on Saudi and HL
There has been some discussion about how to apply the Hubbert Linearization (HL) to Saudi historical production in recent weeks at TOD. Trying not to fall into redundancy, let me have some loose thoughts on these models.
Olduvai revisited 2008
This work tries to assess how the decline of Conventional Fossil Fuels may unfold and how can Mankind avoid the Road that may take us back to the Olduvai Gorge.
IEA WEO 2008 - Fossil Fuel Ultimates and CO2 Emissions Scenarios
An assessment of the WEO climate change statistics, co-authored with Euan Mearns.
Energy Policy: SER-2
This log entry is the first of a series that will try to build a critical but constructive review of this crucial element of future Energy Policy in Europe.
SER-2 [02] Memo on the Security and Solidarity Action Plan
In the second installment of this series analysing the Second Strategic Energy Review (SER-2) by the European Commission, the focus is on to the Memo entitled “EU Energy Security and Solidarity Action Plan”.
SER-2 [03] Communication of the Security and Solidarity Action Plan
This post tries to highlight important aspects that aren't referenced in the Memo and presents the implementation steps proposed by the Commission to put the Plan into practice.
Planning for Europe's Energy Future: My Submission to the Commission's 2010 Consultation on Energy
This document is a response to the Energy Consultation launched by the European Commission in the first half of 2010. This consultation is part of a process that shall take the Commission to a new Energy Policy Programme a few years from now.
Interview with Jean Laherrère
Some comments on the general Fossil Fuels depletion picture and our future beyond them.
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Stuart Staniford

4%, 11%, Who the Hell Cares? A very early piece pointing out that the post-peak decline rate is really the critical variable in assessing the seriousness of peak oil - much more important than the date or height of peak, or the degree of warning of peak. This piece still seems pretty good to me.
Hubbert Theory says Peak is Slow Squeeze. The first piece I wrote looking at the evidence that the post peak decline rate will probably be slow, rather than rapid.
The Auto Efficiency Wedge A piece looking at the fact that at slow decline rates, it's reasonably forseeable that peak oil can be handled by ongoing efficiency improvements (not painlessly, but without complete disaster)
Depletion Levels in Ghawar A major forensic analysis of the state of oil depletion in the Ghawar field of Saudi Arabia, suggesting that Saudi official oil reserve figures are over-optimistic.
US Peak Oil Adaptation: Prognosis in a Credit Crunch Rather prescient piece from 2007 discussing the possibility that the credit crunch could collapse oil prices and slow adaptation to peak oil. This turned out to be pretty much what happened.
Fermenting the Food Supply An argument against continued growth in biofuel consumption as an alternative to oil, on the grounds that the implications for food prices are likely to be very problematic.
The Fallacy of Reversibility This piece argued that there is no evidence for the idea that peak oil will lead to a revival of local non-industrial agriculture. The reverse seems more likely - that industrial agriculture is being and will be strengthened by high oil prices.
Powering Civilization to 2050 The first of three posts laying out a scenario for how we could get to a fairly close to carbon neutral civilization by 2050, without major collapse or disaster (if I was in charge in of the world). This post looked at energy, and argued that extrapolating the learning curve of solar power, it was possible to see energy becoming cheap again by 2050, based primarily on solar.
Four Billion Cars in 2050? Second of the "2050" series: Guesstimates on how many cars there might be by 2050, and how they might be powered.
Food to 2050 The third in the "2050" series: Whether there are likely to be limitations on feeding the world's population to 2050 in a cautiously optimistic scenario.
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Jeff Vail

Theory of Geopolitical Disruptions to Oil Supply
Discusses several non-geological feedback loops that may have a dramatic impact on the course of resource depletion.
Mexico, A Nation-State Dissolves
Addresses the geopolitical instability in Mexico as a potential bellwether for the Nation-State structure generally, and its potential impact on oil production and exports.
The Problem of Growth
How the fundamental structure of our civilization demands perpetual growth and is therefore inherently unsustainable, as well as potential structural solutions.
Oil Demand Destruction and Brittle Systems
Argues that demand destruction tends to make remaining demand less elastic, and therefore makes systems more brittle and vulnerable to future supply shocks.
Predator-Prey Dynamics in Oil Prices
Argues that oil demand, supply, and prices can be modeled similar to predator-prey systems in nature.
A series of posts on the potential for suburbia post-peak.
A Resilient Suburbia? 1: Sunk Cost & Credit Markets
A Resilient Suburbia? 2: Cost of Commuting
A Resilient Suburbia? 3: Weighing the Potential for Self-Sufficiency
A Resilient Suburbia 4: Accounting for the Value of Decentralization
The Renewables Gap
Discussion of the challenges of a societal transition to renewable sources of energy, and especially the "gap" between the beginning of massive investment and the beginning of significant levels of renewable energy generation.
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Chris Vernon

Will Wartime Mobilisation Address Peak Oil?
A look at Lester Brown's call for wartime mobilisation.
Nuclear Britain
Reviews the history and future of civilian nuclear power in Britain.
Climate Change – an alternative approach
Rather than attempting to reduce emissions be reducing demand, can the same be achieved by limiting fossil fuel production?
Jonathon Porritt: Peak Oil and Climate Change
Prominent environmentalist brings together these two issues.
Goodbye Helium, Goodbye Brainscans
Non-Renewable resource scarcity, the case of Helium.
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Some Notable Guest Posts

Cutler Cleveland - Energy Transitions Past and Future
Herman Daly: Towards a Steady State Economy
Herman Daly on the Credit Crisis, Financial Assets, and Real Wealth
Jay Hanson: America 2.0
Walter Youngquist: Unique Times -- and the Future
Christopher Smith: Aviation and Oil Depletion
Nick Rouse: Will Nuclear Fusion Fill the Gap Left by Peak Oil?
Dave Pollard: It's Our Turn to Eat: How Politics Works and Why Activism is So Important
Lester R. Brown: The Oil Intensity of Food
Alan Drake: Multiple Birds – One Silver BB: A synergistic set of solutions to multiple issues focused on Electrified Railroads
Debbie Cook: How Will Local Governments Respond to Large Increases in Energy Bills?
Aaron Newton: The Four Day Work Week: Sixteen Reasons Why This Might Be an Idea Whose Time Has Come
Glenn Morton: Holding Daniel Yergin and CERA Accountable
Michael Vickerman: A federal energy policy: can it happen here?
Brad Lancaster - Eight Principles of Successful Rainwater Harvesting
Dave Rutledge: The Coal Question and Climate Change
Jeffrey J. Brown: The ELP Plan: Economize; Localize & Produce
Jean Laherrère: Arctic Oil and Gas Ultimates
Jean Laherrère: Hydrates updated
Jean Laherrère: Forecasts on Saudi Arabia liquids production
Jean Laherrère: Update on US GOM from MMS, EIA and Scout Data
Sterling Smith: Energy Vision 2050
Douglas B. Reynolds: Peak oil and the Fall of the Soviet Union: Lessons on the 20th Anniversary of the Collapse
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This list isn't exhaustive nor final but what the authors sent in (and we are still missing a few authors).

Threat to economy could force IEA to release oil (Reuters) - Political leaders in the United States and Europe could soon face an uncomfortable choice between raising the pressure on Iran further or taking steps to safeguard their economies from the damage wrought by rising oil prices.

Confrontation with Iran and a series of supply disruptions in South Sudan, Syria and Yemen have pushed prices back to levels that derailed the recovery in the United States and Europe last year, and could do again in the first half of 2012.

If prices continue rising, releasing oil from government-controlled stockpiles will look attractive to policymakers keen to maintain the embargo but anxious to avoid a stalling economy in a U.S. election year.

Crude Oil Falls From Nine-Month High on Signs of Slowdown in Europe, China Oil fell from a nine-month high as signs of slowing demand in Europe and China countered concern that a conflict between Iran and Western nations may escalate and disrupt supplies from the Persian Gulf producer.

Futures slipped as much as 0.6 percent in New York after an index based on a survey of euro-region purchasing managers unexpectedly declined, signaling a contraction. Manufacturing in China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, may shrink for a fourth month. Oil rose earlier after United Nations inspectors in Iran said they were denied access to a suspected nuclear- related military base.

With gasoline consumption trending down, motorists wonder why price keeps rising SACRAMENTO, Calif. — As the average price of gasoline zips toward $4 a gallon in California and past $3.50 nationwide, increasingly frustrated motorists are asking questions.

Among the most vexing: If we're using less gas, how come prices keep going up?

Since January 2010, California Board of Equalization statistics show year-over-year gas use statewide generally declining by 0.1 percent to 4 percent each month. National gas use has also been down or flat.

Some U.S. refineries have even begun exporting their fuel abroad.

Yet the average price of a gallon of gas in Sacramento is $3.93, the highest ever for the month of February, when prices are typically lower than they are at their summer peak.

Higher oil likely to help Gulf petrochemical makers Higher oil prices will boost Gulf producers' margins as their Asian counterparts, which base their production on crude-based naphtha, are forced to raise prices. This enables Gulf players also to sell their products at higher prices, so boosting their margins.

UK forward gas price hits 2012 high, prompt strong London (Reuters) - British gas for summer delivery reached highs not seen since December 2011, supported by strong oil prices, while near-term contracts also made gains due to reduced supplies of stored gas.

The benchmark summer 2012 gas contract rose one pence to 58.70 pence per therm, its highest level since the first half of December.

GOP's latest anti-Obama weapon: Gas prices In addition to paying more at the pump, motorists will be hearing a lot about higher gas prices in the political world.

The prospect of $4-a-gallon gas nationwide is giving Republicans a new issue to whack President Obama this election season.

The GOP’s disconnect on gas prices Gas prices are driven by: 1.) geo-political forces, exaggerated by an active futures market. Day-to-day supply and demand are secondary to speculation about what might happen to supply given the latest in Iran, Venezuela or Mexico; 2.) a falling U.S. dollar; and 3.) the market’s conclusion that “peak oil” has arrived with the coming on line of India’s and China’s automobile ownership.

To further demonstrate the disconnect between traditional laws of supply and demand when it comes to gas prices, consumption in the United States is down and production is at a six-year high.

Fact-checking Newt Gingrich on gas prices Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich appeared on CBS This Morning today, where host Charlie Rose asked if he truly believes President Obama wants to see the price of gas increase, as Gingrich has repeatedly indicated.

"Of course, he does. Come on, Charlie," the former House speaker responded. "You know that. He has said it himself."

Gingrich is wrong on both gun racks in Chevy Volts and US energy policy During a campaign sweep through Georgia last weekend, Newt Gingrich had some interesting things to say about the ability of a Chevy Volt to carry a gun rack, and his fantasy of returning to $2.50 a gallon gasoline.

One in four Americans has more debt than savings Consumers are doing better when it comes to living within their means, said Greg McBride, Bankrate.com’s senior financial analyst. But, he added, years of stagnant wage growth, high unemployment, declining home values and escalating household expenses have strained wallets. “Even though there’s been progress things are still out of whack,” he said.

And the economic pictures may get even gloomier for consumers if gas prices continue to escalate, he pointed out. Last year, he said, “60 percent of Americans said they cut back on discretionary spending because of gasoline prices.”

Cabot Joins Williams to Move Marcellus Gas to New York Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (COG) and Williams Partners LP (WPZ) will join forces on a new pipeline to move at least 500 million cubic feet of natural gas a day from Pennsylvania to higher-priced markets in New York and New England.

How To Play Peak Cheap Oil: Looking For Yield And Growth In The Canadian Oil Sands If you are like me and you were always skeptical of the peak oil theory, you are feeling pretty smug right now. New technologies and new oil discoveries are being made daily and politicians are once again musing about America becoming energy independent. You never even hear the phrase "peak oil" anymore unless it is from some jerk like me enjoying a self-satisfied pat on the back for being right.

However, I am becoming a believer in peak oil theory's little cousin: peak cheap oil. Or peak conventional oil, if you prefer. Whatever you call it, it is undeniable that the face of oil production is changing. Conventional oil deposits are shrinking, as are margins at the oil majors. Oil exploration is becoming more expensive and most new oil reserves are coming from deep horizontal wells, hydraulic fracturing and deep-sea drilling.

Kurt Cobb: How you can tell that the peak oil debate is (almost) over Protestations in the mainstream media that we need not worry about a peak in the rate of world oil production anytime soon are suddenly coming fast and furious. As a result, I was reminded both of Shakespeare and Gandhi.

"The media doth protest too much," I thought (with apologies to Queen Gertrude in Hamlet). As for Gandhi, a quote commonly attributed to him may shed light on where we are in the peak oil debate: "First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they attack you. Then you win."

Chevron Pumps Billions Into Kazakhstan For Barrels Of Sour Crude Chevron Corp.’s Kazakhstan venture will seek to spend between $5 and $6 billion to sustain output in the country’s prolific Tengiz oil field.

The budgeted amount will be used to drill wells in the region over the next five years through the TengizChevroil LLP venture.

Oil producer Apache to spend $1bn in Egypt Egypt's oil and gas sector is to benefit from US$1 billion (Dh3.67bn) of investment as the nation tries to rebuild its economy after the revolution.

The US oil producer Apache has agreed to spend that sum developing Egyptian hydrocarbons over the next two years - as much as it has spent on exploration in Egypt in the previous decade.

Egypt: Time for a green constitution Religion, class, faith, culture and gender will all play some part in shaping this new document – but will the environment gain fair representation?

Waleed Mansour is an Egyptian environmentalist – and below is his take on the key message he would like to see those legislators take forward.

In Egypt, hopes of a true revolution fade A year after the revolution, many Egyptians — already suffering under the weight of a wretched economy — see an undemocratic society where the military and Islamic ideologues are hoarding power while changing nothing. Though some are pleased that a form of law shaped by the Quran is coming to Egypt, others wonder whether they have swapped one corrupt and suppressing dictatorship for another.

IAEA Departs Iran After Talks Yield No ‘Way Forward’ Officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency, sent to Iran to defuse tensions over the country’s nuclear program, were denied access to a military base and said the talks “couldn’t finalize a way forward.”

The IAEA inspectors were refused permission to visit the Parchin base during two days of meetings that ended yesterday. Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, told state television that officials discussed grounds for cooperation and further talks will be held. He didn’t elaborate.

Iran ‘could lift France, UK oil ban’ Iran has said it may lift its ban on oil exports to France and the UK on the day UN nuclear weapons inspectors were reportedly blocked from visiting one military site.

Don't Expect Asia to Join the Iran Oil Embargo China and Russia, of course, are obstructive and self-interested in all this, and other countries aspiring to new global roles prefer to hunker down than to choose sides.

But the real failure of US-EU diplomacy is in Asia. Taken together, Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan account for about 38 percent of all Iranian export purchases. (Add China and the figure is 60 percent, but that’s a non-starter).

India BPCL plans shift from Iran to Saudi oil -sources NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India's Bharat Petroleum has turned to Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, for higher supplies in 2012/13, fearing global sanctions may jeopardise trade with Iran, industry sources said on Wednesday.

Saudi Arabia is the biggest oil supplier to India, the world's fourth-biggest oil consumer, and is the only oil producer with significant spare capacity to replace any fall in supply from its regional rival Iran.

Indonesia President: Need To Revise Growth, Oil Price Forecasts After Iran Sanctions JAKARTA – Indonesia needs to revise its economic growth and oil price forecasts in the state budget due to the global economic slowdown and after some developed nations slapped sanctions on major oil producer Iran, the country's president said Wednesday.

Oil firms plan for Mideast turmoil BEIJING - China's biggest oil companies are learning how to alleviate the risks resulting from the uncertain geopolitical scenarios in the Middle East and North Africa.

One of their latest moves is a plan to assemble equipment in Dubai in the United Arabic Emirates. The regional business hub will act as a halfway house on the road to the turbulent areas.

Congressman: Iraq War's end gives al-Qaeda opening in Syria WASHINGTON – The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq has hurt the United States' ability to blunt efforts by al-Qaeda militants to extend their reach into neighboring Syria, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee said.

Afghan police fire at anti-U.S. rallies; 3 killed KABUL, Afghanistan – Afghan officials say at least three people have been killed after police opened fire to disperse thousands of anti-American demonstrators rioting for a second day over what the U.S. has said was the inadvertent burning of Muslim holy books at a NATO military base.

Gazprom Accuses Ukraine of Gas Siphoning Ukraine illegally siphoned off up to 40 million cubic meters of Russian natural gas for Europe over several days this month, Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said on Wednesday.

Ukrainian Energy Minister Yuriy Boyko said this January that Ukraine was seeking to cut Russian gas imports to 27 billion cu m from 52 bcm. Gazprom reacted then by saying the current contract did not stipulate unilateral changes in gas purchase volumes.

Medvedev Orders Gazprom to Build South Stream with Maximum Capacity Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday instructed Gazprom to build the South Stream gas pipeline intended to carry natural gas to Europe with a maximum annual capacity of 63 billion cubic meters.

“What we witnessed at the beginning of the year (severe cold in Europe and Russia) is sufficient ground to instruct Gazprom to focus on the maximum pumping volume of gas through the South Stream gas pipeline construction,” Medvedev said at a meeting with Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller.

'Find of a lifetime' in Black Sea: OMV An offshore Black Sea well jointly owned by ExxonMobil and OMV's Romanian arm Petrom has made a potentially significant discovery, according to the Austrian player.

...OMV said the exploration well encountered 70.7 metres of net gas pay, resulting in a preliminary estimate for the accumulation ranging from 1.5 trillion to 3 trillion cubic feet.

Exxon signs Nigeria oil renewals, dispute ends ABUJA (Reuters) - U.S. energy giant Exxon Mobil signed 20-year oil licence renewals on Nigerian assets producing around 550,000 barrels per day on Wednesday, the company's country manager said, ending months of negotiations.

As wide-ranging energy reforms have been delayed by political wrangling, Nigeria has not renewed several drilling licences that expired as far back as 2008 with foreign oil companies, including Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron .

Nigeria losing 150 000 barrels of oil per day Abuja - Oil companies in Nigeria are battling against a rising theft that is costing them an estimated 150 000 barrels of crude each day, an oil major official said on Tuesday.

Bonds proposed to recoup W.Va. utility fuel costs CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) — Seeking to avoid a one-year rate hike of 30 to 40 percent, Appalachian Power is asking the West Virginia Legislature to allow it to issue bonds instead to recoup energy costs.

The electric utility estimates its costs from steadily rising coal prices tops $350 million, spokeswoman Jeri Matheney said Wednesday. Lower demand attributed to the recession and fragile recovery also is a factor, she said. But the crunch is hitting the utility on the heels of four years of rate increases triggered by a spike in coal prices last decade, Matheney said.

Records Show Confusion in U.S. at Start of Japan’s Atomic Crisis WASHINGTON — Something resembling a “fog of war” prevailed at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s headquarters in the first hours and days after the Fukushima accident began last March, the N.R.C.’s chairman said Tuesday, as the agency released a cache of transcripts of internal conference calls beginning hours after the earthquake.

Nuclear power entrepreneurs push thorium as a fuel One year ago, a massive earthquake spawned a tsunami that nearly destroyed Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, further frightening people who had been wary of nuclear power since accidents at Three Mile Island in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986.

But a small group of scientists, entrepreneurs and advocates see the post-Fukushima era as the perfect opportunity to get the United States to consider a proposal they have made with no success for years. What about trying a new fuel, they say, and maybe a new kind of reactor?

Spain to extend life of its oldest nuclear plant Spain will extend operations at its oldest nuclear power plant by five years, Industry Minister Jose Manuel Soria said Saturday as the country seeks to make the most of its energy sources.

The decision was immediately slammed as "irresponsible" by environmentalists.

China starts program to beef up nuclear safety, technology for assessing risks SHANGHAI - China's National Energy Administration plans to beef up safety at nuclear power plants after months of assessments and inspections in the wake of Japan's Fukushima disaster.

The administration said in a statement on its website that 13 research and development projects involving the China National Nuclear Corp. and other state-run companies and research institutions should be completed by 2013.

Government to buy more biobased products To buoy America's farmers and cut the nation's dependence on oil, President Obama is expected to issue rules today to expand the emerging market for biobased products that are just starting to appear on store shelves with a U.S.-approved label.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Technology Update While waiting to see how the latest settlement of the EU's debt crisis or any of the ongoing Middle East confrontations turn out, it seems like a good time to review a few of the hundreds of announcements of new energy technology that have made in the last few months.

'Artificial leaf' eyed as holy grail in energy research Turbo-charging photosynthesis -- by which plants and bacteria turn sunlight into food and energy -- in an "artificial leaf" could yield a vast commercial power source, scientists said.

Europe’s Top Solar Subsidy Lifts Ukraine as Growth Slows in West Solar-power capacity in Ukraine is forecast to double this year, spurred by the completion of Europe’s biggest photovoltaic plant in December and incentives a third higher than anywhere else in the region.

Developers in the former Soviet republic may add panels with 300 megawatts of capacity after last year installing about 200 megawatts, according to the Association of Alternative Fuels and Energy Market Participants, the main lobby group tracking PV installations in the nation. It had just 2.5 megawatts in 2010.

Scotland Vies With England for $52 Billion Offshore-Wind Future Scotland and England, haggling over the possible breakup of the U.K., are competing to create a hub for the country’s $52 billion offshore wind industry.

Vt. won't make renewable energy goals MONTPELIER, Vt. (AP) — Two key state lawmakers said Tuesday that Vermont won't meet its goal of getting 20 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2017, and they're withdrawing their support for setting a new goal of 30 percent renewable power by 2025.

Two key battery car start-ups race to prove critics wrong A new lawsuit targeting California car- and battery-maker Fisker Automotive is the latest potential setback for the once-promising company, one of several high-tech start-ups to receive millions of dollars in assistance under a Department of Energy loan program meant to promote the development of high-mileage technologies.

The legal wrangle with investor Daniel Wray underscores the problems Fisker is facing as it struggles to line up alternative funding if the DoE pulls the plug. The loan is critical to develop a second line of Fisker products aimed at the emerging market for battery-powered automobiles.

New Enzyme Could Cut Cost of Ethanol Made From Waste It is one of the holy grails of clean energy production: finding a way to make ethanol from the cellulose in biowaste like corn husks and household trash. Although several pilot projects are up and running — with many more in the pipeline — commercial production has remained elusive, with the costs remaining much higher than for producing ethanol from corn, or gasoline.

But in what may come as welcome news to oil companies that are paying penalties for failing to use cellulosic ethanol — a biofuel that, commercially speaking, does not yet exist — a big producer of industrial enzymes has developed an enzyme that can help wring more ethanol out of cellulose at a lower cost.

The Quest for ‘Hydricity’ In the 1980s and ’90s, hydrogen fuel cell technology seemed like a strong candidate for use in cars and stationary applications, converting hydrogen to electricity with no emissions beyond a puff of antiseptic water vapor.

Geoffrey Ballard, founder of Ballard Power Systems, coined a term to describe the new system, “hydricity,” a fusion of hydrogen and electricity. Surplus electricity could be used to split water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen, with the hydrogen stored for reconversion into electricity.

Twelve Principles for Sustainable Business There is much talk of business needing to become more sustainable, in the face of an increasing number of challenges, such as climate change, peak oil, new legislation, repetitional risk, and increasing costs. That companies need to change is no longer the debate, but there is a need to understand (in easy terms) what businesses could be doing and how this action will deliver sustainable business success, as well as helping to save the planet.

The Way is Shut When I first approached the topic of societal energy in 2004, I became aware for the first time that our energy future was not in the bag, and proceeded to explore alternative after alternative to judge the viability and potential pitfalls of various options. I have retraced my steps in Do the Math posts, exposing the scales at which different energy sources might contribute, and the practical complexities involved. My spooky campfire version of the story, a la Tolkien: The Way is Shut.

Texas agency likely to cut water to rice farms LISSIE, Texas (AP) — Five generations of Ronald Gertson's family have tilled the claylike soil of southeast Texas to grow rice, confident that no matter how fickle Mother Nature was, there would be one constant: water to irrigate their crop.

Until now.

For the first time since Gertson's great-grandfather made his way from Denmark through Kansas to the flat, coastal area south of Houston, his family faces the likelihood officials won't release water from two Austin-area lakes into the rivers and canals they use for irrigation.

Our unrealistic attitudes about death, through a doctor’s eyes For all its technological sophistication and hefty price tag, modern medicine may be doing more to complicate the end of life than to prolong or improve it. If a person living in 1900 managed to survive childhood and childbearing, she had a good chance of growing old. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a person who made it to 65 in 1900 could expect to live an average of 12 more years; if she made it to 85, she could expect to go another four years. In 2007, a 65-year-old American could expect to live, on average, another 19 years; if he made it to 85, he could expect to go another six years.

Another factor in our denial of death has more to do with changing demographics than advances in medical science. Our nation’s mass exodus away from the land and an agricultural existence and toward a more urban lifestyle means that we’ve antiseptically left death and the natural world behind us. At the beginning of the Civil War, 80 percent of Americans lived in rural areas and 20 percent lived in urban ones. By 1920, with the Industrial Revolution in full swing, the ratio was around 50-50; as of 2010, 80 percent of Americans live in urban areas.

How monkeys handle moral outrage The bottom line from de Waal's talk is that a sense of fairness, outrage over moral equality and the ability to reconcile and cooperate are not uniquely human behaviors. Rather, such sensibilities were hard-wired into brains long before the rise of the human species. This is reflected in neuroscience as well, de Waal said. "Very ancient parts of the brain are involved in moral decision making," he observed.

Science overturns view of humans as naturally 'nasty' But he told reporters that research also shows animals bestow their empathy on animals they are familiar with in their "in-group" -- and that natural tendency is a challenge in a globalized human world.

"Morality" developed in humans in small communities, he said, adding: "It's a challenge... it's experimental for the human species to apply a system intended for (in-groups) to the whole world."

When a Country Cracks Down on Contraception: Grim Lessons from the Philippines Over the past few decades, as most of the world has embraced family planning, the majority-Catholic nation has waged war on reproductive rights. There, abortion is strictly prohibited and crackdowns on contraception are common. Church officials promote what they call “natural” family planning: women are advised to track their cycle and abstain from sex on all but their least fertile days. They cast “artificial” contraception as an affront to God’s will, a gateway to abortion and a threat to public health. In their minds, condoms are “abortifacients” and family-planning campaigners are, as Archbishop Paciano Aniceto told me in 2008, “propagandists of a culture death.”

This type of thinking has led several jurisdictions to try to curb the use of modern contraception. For much of the past decade, for instance, the city of Manila kept birth control from city-funded clinics. The architects of the plan told me that it was designed to discourage promiscuity and, as much as possible, keep public funds away from private vice. The evidence suggests the bill did little to promote abstinence (what Aniceto called “self-mastery”) and did much to hurt women’s health. A report by the Center for Reproductive Rights documented a relative rise in maternal mortality, a slew of unwanted pregnancies and evidence of injury caused by clandestine abortions.

Raw milk causes most illnesses from dairy, study finds Unpasteurized milk, touted as the ultimate health food by some, is 150 times more likely to cause food-borne illness outbreaks than pasteurized milk, and such outbreaks had a hospitalization rate 13 times higher than those involving pasteurized dairy products, a study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention finds.

..."When you consider that no more than 1% of the milk consumed in the United States is raw, it's pretty startling to see that more of the outbreaks were caused by raw milk than pasteurized," says Barbara Mahon, senior author on the paper and deputy director of enteric diseases at CDC.

Demand presents risks to water supplies "The bulk of the research in recent years has focused on climate change effects on coastal groundwater but increases in water demand could be more important," researcher Grant Ferguson said. "This is particularly true in growing coastal cities and towns where groundwater is often an important water supply."

Why should you care about Canada’s tar sands? A lot of progress has indeed been made. This is due to high oil prices and lower production costs than in the mid-2000s. It is generally assumed that new oil sand operations require an oil price of $70 per barrel or more to be economically feasible. However, technological advances mean that some existing operations provide a return on investment with oil prices as low as $50 per barrel.

For the last three years, global oil prices have been well in excess of those margins. Brent crude, the global benchmark, stood above $100 per barrel for most of 2011 and is now above $120 following problems with Iran. It is unlikely that prices will drop dramatically in the near to mid-term future. Oil sand projects are likely to remain economically viable for some time to come.

All fossil fuels must be cut to avoid global warming, scientists say OTTAWA — Two Canadian climate change scientists from the University of Victoria say the public reaction to their recently published commentary has missed their key message: that all forms of fossil fuels, including the oilsands and coal, must be regulated for the world to avoid dangerous global warming.

"Much of the way this has been reported is (through) a type of view that oilsands are good and coal is bad," said climate scientist Neil Swart, who co-authored the study with fellow climatologist Andrew Weaver. "From my perspective, that was not the point. . . . The point here is, we need a rapid transition to renewable (energy), and avoid committing to long-term fossil fuel use if we are to get within the limits (of reducing global warming to less than 2 C)."

Norway faces EU climate measure penalty The EU will, through a new directive, punish the Norwegian oil industry for efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, says Statoil’s head of environment.

Gleick hurt by ethics lapse over climate papers The latest national uproar over climate change science has damaged, if not ruined, the reputation of one of the Bay Area's most prominent scholars and raised serious questions about ethics during what has become a roiling political and ideological debate.

Peter Gleick, a MacArthur Foundation fellow and co-founder and president of Oakland's Pacific Institute, admitted Monday that he had posed as someone else and obtained confidential internal papers from the Heartland Institute, a libertarian group that has questioned the reality of human-caused global warming.

The Heartland Affair: A Climate Champion Cheats — and We All Lose Late last year, Peter Gleick — the president of the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security; and a respected expert on water-and-climate issues — co-authored a paper on the American Geophysical Union's (AGU) task force on scientific ethics and integrity. Gleick and his co-author Randy Townsend of the AGU wrote that advancing scientific work to create a sustainable future would only be possible if scientists had the trust of the public and policymakers. And that trust, they added, "is earned by maintaining the highest standards of scientific integrity in all that we do."

Strong words, and true ones too, but Gleick himself has failed to live up to them — and his actions have hurt not just his own professional reputation but the cause of climate science as well.

EU faces multiple trade wars defending green policies BRUSSELS - EU measures to cut CO2 emissions and improve the climate have sparked outrage in the global aviation industry and most recently in Canada, home to the world’s second largest fossil fuel reserves.

Russian heat wave 'had both manmade and natural causes' (PhysOrg.com) -- The heat wave that struck western Russia in summer 2010, causing 55,000 deaths, was caused by a combination of manmade and natural factors. However, the frequency of occurrence of such heat waves has increased by a factor of three over recent decades, new research suggests.

Motorists hit by record surge in gas prices NEW YORK — Gasoline prices have never been higher this time of the year in the U.S.

At $3.53 a gallon, prices are already up 25 cents since Jan. 1. And experts say they could reach a record $4.25 a gallon by late April.

"You're going to see a lot more staycations this year," says Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, referring to people staying at home on their vacations. "When the price gets anywhere near $4, you really see people react."

Concern high over global oil supplies The risks to global oil supplies are greater than at any time in the past 30 years, according to a leading banker.

Tension in the Gulf, sanctions against Iran and disruptions to African exports have created a threat level last reached when tankers transiting the Gulf were attacked during theIran-Iraq war.

"Not since the late 1970s/early 1980s has there been such a serious threat to oil supply," said Soozhana Choi, an energy analyst at Deutsche Bank, adding that Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz were unsettling. Oil futures in London are expected to open near an eight-month high today, having closed at US$119 a barrel on Friday, while US crude oil ended the week at $103 a barrel.

Oil Rises to 9-Month High; Iran Says Halts Europe Exports Oil rose to a nine-month high in New York after Iran said it halted some crude exports and investors bet that fuel demand will increase as Europe moves closer to bailing out Greece.

Futures climbed as much as 1.9 percent for a fourth day of gains, the longest rising streak since December. Iran will supply crude to “new customers” instead of companies in the U.K. and France, the oil ministry’s news website, Shana, said, citing Alireza Nikzad Rahbar, a spokesman. Prices also advanced as European finance ministers prepared to meet to discuss a 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) aid package for Greece, the country’s second rescue in less than two years.

Japan January Liquefied Natural Gas Imports Rise 28.2%; Oil Purchases Drop Japan’s liquefied natural gas imports rose to a record in January after the Fukushima nuclear disaster led to the shutdown of most of the country’s atomic reactors, causing utilities to use more fossil fuels.

The nation’s LNG imports climbed 28.2 percent from a year earlier to 8.15 million metric tons, according to a preliminary report released today by the Ministry of Finance.

API: Taxing onshore oil, gas wrong policy WASHINGTON (UPI) -- A proposal to raise royalty rates for onshore oil and natural gas in the United States sends the wrong message about domestic production, trade group API says.

U.S. President Barack Obama kept taxes on oil and natural gas production in his budget proposal that some analysts say could push the bill for developers to more than $27 billion during the next decade.

Russian Oil Boom Ending Signals Lower Energy Tax That Risks Unrest Russia’s 12-year oil boom is nearing its peak, forcing the next president to decide whether to cut taxes and revive production or use the windfall from $100 oil to boost public spending and quell mounting unrest.

As Vladimir Putin campaigns for a second stint in the Kremlin, the nation’s existing fields are losing pressure and oil companies OAO Rosneft, OAO Lukoil and TNK-BP (BP/) say production taxes give little incentive to invest. Since Putin first became president in 2000, crude output has grown 57 percent to 10 million barrels a day, surpassing Saudi Arabia and flooding the state treasury.

Which Presidential Candidate Will Solve the Gas Problem? According to an article in USA Today, as spring progresses into summer, gas prices will only go up. This will negatively impact the economy, slowing growth that is "only moderate" after a recession. Gas prices are a hot topic this election year. Newt Gingrich is saying we must make use of more of our own resources, a position that Rick Perry also took early in his campaign. Is it really that simple?

Iraq’s January oil exports slightly decline, but revenues up on higher oil prices BAGHDAD — Iraq’s oil ministry says oil exports have declined slightly in January compared to the previous month.

Monday’s statement says last month oil exports averaged 2.107 million barrels per day, down from 2.145 million barrels per day in December.

Gazprom Says Fully Restored Gas Flows To Europe MOSCOW – Russia has fully restored natural gas shipments to Europe, the country's state gas firm said Monday, after it had been unable to meet rising demand in recent weeks due to cold weather across the continent.

Gazprom downplays U.S. natural gas MOSCOW (UPI) -- Rising expectations about U.S. natural gas exports doesn't mean it would be a major competitor to Russia's Gazprom, an executive said.

With Russia falling to the No. 2 position in terms of natural gas production, the U.S. Energy Information Administration last month said the United States would be a net exporter of liquefied natural gas by 2016. Initial sales would be around 1.1 billion cubic feet per day.

Poland, EU Discussing Shale Gas Incentives - Talisman CEO LONDON – Poland is still in discussions with the European Union on developing a tax regime that incentivizes shale gas exploration in the eastern European country, Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) Chief Executive John Manzoni said Monday.

Iran Stops Exporting Oil to U.K., French Buyers Iran stopped sales of crude to French and British buyers to pre-empt a European Union ban on imports of its oil and as OPEC’s second-biggest producer negotiates contracts to supply China.

Iran “will give its crude oil to new customers instead of French and U.K. companies,” the Shana oil ministry news website reported, citing Alireza Nikzad Rahbar, a ministry spokesman.

Iran finds new oil customers TEHRAN (UPI) -- An Iranian official said it was selling crude oil to new customers after opting to stop oil deliveries to British and French companies.

Iran says may extend oil cut to more EU countries TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — An Iranian semiofficial news agency says Tehran is considering extending an oil embargo on France and Britain to other European countries.

IEA says EU could live with abrupt Iran oil halt (Reuters) - The European Union could cope with an abrupt halt by Iran of its oil exports to the region as buyers of Iranian oil are already adjusting to the EU's forthcoming ban on Iranian shipments, an International Energy Agency official said on Monday.

Israeli Attack on Iran Would Be Destabilizing, Joint Chiefs’ Dempsey Says An Israeli attack on Iran would be “destabilizing,” Army General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said.

“It’s not prudent at this point to decide to attack Iran,” Dempsey said today on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS” program. The U.S. government is confident the Israelis “understand our concerns,” he said.

Iran: More high oil prices ahead for EU TEHRAN (UPI) -- Last week's spike in oil prices is what's in store for Europe if it follows through on moves to ban Iranian imports, a senior Tehran lawmaker says.

Expert: Attack on Iran may mean $200/barrel oil (CBS News) An Israeli air strike on Iran, with the intent of knocking out that country's nuclear facilities, may only speed Tehran's race to build a bomb, a nuclear policy expert told CBS News.

China's Unipec to take less Iran oil in 2012 BEIJING (Reuters) - One of China's two major buyers of Iranian crude has reduced the amount it will take this year although by how much was unclear, trade sources said on Monday, after expectations that China would be the buyer of last resort for Iranian crude displaced by sanctions.

Sudan oil dispute keeps tanker from Japan port SINGAPORE (Reuters) - A ship carrying disputed Sudanese crude is awaiting permission to dock in Japan, unable to unload its cargo for the past week because of uncertainty surrounding the ownership of the oil, shipping sources and traders said on Monday.

Factbox: Key political risks to watch in Yemen DUBAI (Reuters) - Political unrest and economic deterioration continued to plague Yemen ahead of the February 21 presidential election many hoped would give Yemen a chance to bring about reforms that could help the country recover from a year of protests.

China’s Zhai Urges End to Syria Violence After Damascus Talks With Assad China’s vice foreign minister, Zhai Jun, urged Syria to end violence and restore stability after a meeting with President Bashar al-Assad.

Syria Presses Crackdown on Protestors After China Urges an End to Violence Syrian security forces maintained their crackdown against opponents of President Bashar al-Assad’s rule after China urged an end to the violence.

Syrian Gunmen Kill Officials as U.K. Foreign Secretary Warns of Civil War Opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s rule stepped up their deadly attacks against government officials as the violence of the past 11 months pushes the country toward civil war.

Syrian opposition sees radicals at work for regime BEIRUT – The Free Syrian Army says terrorists are operating in Syria on behalf of the Assad regime as its military forces continue to bombard opposition cities despite United Nations condemnation.

Aref Hamoud, a colonel in the Free Syrian Army, said his units are encountering a growing number of radical elements in some parts of the country. He said the radicals are Syrians and not foreigners from al-Qaeda.

Syrian rebel: Uprising is an 'orphan revolution' without foreign support (CNN) -- President Barack Obama's top military adviser says it is premature to aid in arming the Syrian opposition, reinforcing the belief of a rebel commander that the uprising is an "orphan revolution" without the international support prevalent in other Arab Spring revolts.

Aramco, Sumitomo May Delay Rabigh Chemical Expansion, HSBC Says Saudi Arabian Oil Co. and Sumitomo Chemical Co. (4005) may postpone a $6 billion plan to expand their joint-venture petrochemical plant in the Red Sea town of Rabigh, HSBC Holdings Plc said.

Hindustan Petroleum to construct underground storage facilities VISAKHAPATNAM: Public Sector Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) has taken up construction of underground storage facilities for keeping crude oil stocks which could be used to meet petroleum requirement during oil crisis, Union Minister S Jaipal Reddy said.

Director: Nabucco's obituary premature VIENNA (UPI) -- Existing plans for the Nabucco natural gas pipeline for Europe make the best proposition to diversify the regional energy sector, an official said.

Europe is looking for ways to break the Russian grip on the natural gas sector by pursuing a series of pipelines for the so-called Southern Corridor. Of those, Nabucco is the most ambitious though its $10 billion price tag and lack of firm supplier commitments is causing critics to emerge.

Canada ‘threatens EU’ over oil sands move Canada has threatened to take its oil sands spat with the EU to the World Trade Organisation ahead of a key vote in Brussels on the contentious issue later this week, a report has claimed.

Canada fighting for oil pipelines OTTAWA (UPI) -- The Canadian government is working to establish a new consumer base for crude oil in light of U.S. opposition to a planned oil pipeline, a scholar said.

Head of Canadian navy says climate change boosts need for bigger presence in Arctic CALGARY - The head of the Royal Canadian Navy says Canada needs to bolster its military presence in the Arctic to prepare for a boom in human and economic activity resulting largely from climate change.

Global warming is thought to be occurring faster in the North than anywhere else. The gradual disappearance of sea ice is opening up commercial shipping as well as previously inaccessible areas rich with oil, natural gas and mineral resources.

U.S. slowly opening arctic waters for oil WASHINGTON (UPI) -- Cautious exploration for oil and natural gas off the coast of Alaska will boost U.S. energy security, the U.S. Interior Department secretary said.

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said he saw "great promise" in the resource base in Alaska. In the arctic frontier, he said, cautious exploration would support the goal of increasing domestic oil and natural gas production.

North Slope Blowout on Land Clearly Shows We Are Not Ready to Deal with an Accident in the Arctic "Yesterday, Spain's big oil company Repsol drilled into a methane pocket that resulted in an exploration drilling blowout on Alaska's Arctic shores. This is yet another wake-up call for the Obama Administration that oil and gas activities are risky business. We are incredibly lucky this is not an oil well blowout offshore in the Arctic Ocean; because the nation is not prepared to deal with an accident like that in offshore Arctic waters where the ability to respond is limited at best, and impossible at worst. As of right now 42,000 gallons of drilling lubricant or "mud" have spilled and an unknown amount of methane has escaped.

Agenda 21 provokes conspiracy fears in Chattanooga The Chattanooga Tea Party has been talking for months about Agenda 21, an action plan adopted at a 1992 conference of the United Nations. The action plan calls for governments worldwide -- national, state and local -- to focus on sustainable development.

But tea party groups and others say there is more to the plan that intrudes on the private rights of individuals. They say the agenda proposes such things as trying to make people live closer to cities instead of giving them free choice, guiding such things as annexation to give cities more control of individuals and cities using code enforcement as a way to trump individual rights.

Stars & Cars: Adrian Grenier Awaits the Electric-Vehicle Revolution, Does Not Advocate Knee Driving I’ve been waiting for the electric-vehicle revolution. I live in New York and I don’t need a car there. I need a car mostly when I’m in L.A., to go to auditions or meetings. And these new electric cars go 100 miles on a charge. You talk about the price of gas these days—not only the financial cost but the environmental implications of oil, and the political conflicts connected to oil scarcity. Advancing electric cars seems the way to go.

Pathways to a Lower Carbon & More Electrified Future - Unveiling the Equinox Blueprint: Energy 2030 WATERLOO, ON /PRNewswire/ - Imagine a world with too much energy... clean energy. How different would our human civilization be with fewer energy limitations - less risk of climate change, no peak oil, and more renewable ways to provide power to an exploding global population?

But, this is not our present scenario. Today's energy needs are met largely by high-carbon sources and inefficient technologies. But, is there a better way? How could we use the latest scientific knowledge to best prepare ourselves for a lower carbon, more electrified future?

India May Levy 19% Import Tax on Power Gear Including From China India’s cabinet is likely to approve a proposal to impose a 19 percent duty on imports of power generation equipment to help local manufacturers Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (BHEL) and Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (LT) compete for orders with Chinese rivals, according to a government official.

Hydropower has big potential; many detractors Hydroelectric power is climate friendly, but it remains a disputed energy source. It's not always the case that renewable energy has a positive impact on the environment, as some major dam projects have proven.

U.K. Wind Power Reached Record High of 3,428 Megawatts Feb. 17 U.K. wind generation set a record on the evening of Feb. 17, according to National Grid Plc data compiled by Bloomberg.

Wind generation peaked at 3,428 megawatts at 9:20 p.m. on that day, the data show.

U.K. Needs to Streamline Marine Energy Fund Process, Report Says The U.K. needs to streamline its funding process for marine energy and provide clarity on support beyond 2017 so it doesn’t repeat the mistake that allowed it to lose its lead in wind power to Denmark in the 1980s, a government report said.

Energy poverty killing more people than malaria A lack of clean energy for cooking is causing severe respiratory diseases that kill around two million people each year, says a scientist from the University of British Columbia.

"Energy poverty is one of the biggest human welfare issues of our day," says Hisham Zerriffi, who is presenting his research at the 2012 Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. "We're talking about more people who die each year from cooking than from malaria."

A Plan to Restrict Flight Paths, to Hush the Blender Over Long Island Mary-Grace Tomecki, a Floral Park resident who lives near the train track route, said that during the summer helicopters passed overhead every five minutes and it sounded like “being in a blender.” She said it made it difficult to tend to the morning glories and tomatoes she grows.

“It would be an incredible improvement in quality of life,” Ms. Tomecki, an academic adviser at New York University, said of the ban. “It means actually being able to have a barbecue on Friday night and be able to talk.”

Textile Recycling Is Thriving in New York Last May, the city formed a partnership with Housing Works, a group that helps homeless people who are H.I.V.-positive, to pick up donated clothing at apartment buildings in one of the first large-scale consumer textile recycling programs in the country. The goal is to capture most of the 200,000 tons of apparel and other textiles that New Yorkers throw away each year but that could be reused instead and thereby reduce the city’s garbage disposal costs.

Economic crisis slows U.S. population growth The U.S. population is growing at the slowest rate since the Great Depression after two decades of robust increases.

Veteran climate researcher sees major threats The world needs an immediate reduction in the burning of fossil fuel to head off potentially disastrous effects from global warming, a prominent American scientist warned Sunday in Vancouver.

James Hansen, head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and an iconic figure among climate researchers, said "even the skeptical scientists now agree" that Earth is undergoing a warming trend.

Attacks paid for by big business are 'driving science into a dark era' Most scientists, on achieving high office, keep their public remarks to the bland and reassuring. Last week Nina Fedoroff, the president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), broke ranks in a spectacular manner.

She confessed that she was now "scared to death" by the anti-science movement that was spreading, uncontrolled, across the US and the rest of the western world.

Preparing for the flood: Visualizations help communities plan for sea-level rise The four alternate scenarios show Delta over the next century where the municipality adopts various strategies to prepare for sea-level rise including: raising the dikes ("Hold The Line," Fig. 3); building offshore barrier islands to absorb the impact of incoming storms ("Reinforce and Reclaim," Fig 4); moving parts of the community out of the floodplain and on to higher ground ("Managed Retreat," Fig. 5); and reducing vulnerability through design by raising homes, roads and critical infrastructure above the floodplain ("Build Up," Fig. 6).

The visualizations packages not only show what the region could look at the end of the century but also takes into account other important factors like the cost of each solution for the municipality, the cost to individual property owners, and the trade-offs between protecting roads, habitat, homes, waterfront views and agricultural production.

Rising tide of sea-level warnings drowned out by wave of shoreline development The science that backs this advice gets drowned out when developers wave big money at county officials craving revenue. A classic "lose-lose" - for the environment and for taxpayers - results.

This is a guest post by Tobias Rasmussen, Senior Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF, and Agustin Roitman, Economist, IMF. This post originally appeared on the VoxEU.org website here.

Recent developments in oil markets and the global economy have, once again, triggered concerns about the impact of oil price shocks around the world. This column wonders whether the fuss is really necessary. It presents evidence of relatively small negative effects of oil price increases.

Increases in international oil prices over the past couple years, explained partly by strong growth in large emerging and developing economies, have raised concerns that high oil prices could endanger the shaky recovery in advanced economies and small oil-importing countries.

The notion that oil prices can have a macroeconomic impact is well accepted; the debate has centred mainly on magnitude and transmission channels. Most studies have focused on the US and other OECD economies. And much of the discussion has related to the role of monetary policy, labour markets, and the intensity of oil in production (Hamilton 1983, 1996, 2005, 2009, Barsky and Kilian 2004, Bernanke et al 1997, Blanchard and Gali 2007).

The manner in which oil prices affect emerging and developing economies has received surprisingly little attention compared with the large body of evidence for advanced economies. In an attempt to provide a broader and more encompassing view on the impact of oil price shocks, we document in recent research (Rasmussen and Roitman 2011) key stylised facts that characterise the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic aggregates across the world.

The big picture

It is no surprise that import bills go up when oil prices increase. It is more surprising that GDP often goes up too. Figure 1 depicts the correlation between oil prices and GDP for 144 countries from 1970 to 2010. More precisely, it shows the cyclical components of oil prices and GDP, with long-term trends excluded. The set includes 19 oil-exporting countries, represented by red bars, and 125 oil-importing countries, represented by blue bars. A positive correlation indicates that when oil prices go up, GDP goes up, and when oil prices go down, GDP goes down.

The message is clear. In more than 80% of the countries, the correlation between oil prices and GDP is positive, and in only two advanced economies – the US and Japan – it is negative. One of the contributing factors to this pattern is that in 90% of the countries, exports tend to move in the same direction as oil prices.

Figure 1. Correlation between the cyclical component of real GDP and the cyclical component of real oil prices (1970-2010)

Anatomy of oil shock episodes

Given that periods of high oil prices have generally coincided with good times for the world economy, especially in recent years, it is important to disentangle the impact of oil price increases on economic activity during episodes of markedly high oil prices. Following Hamilton (2003), we identify 12 episodes since 1970 in which oil prices have reached three-year highs. The median increase in oil prices in these years was 27%.

We study the behaviour of macroeconomic aggregates during these episodes by comparing the median annual change in a particular variable during oil shock years to the median annual change over the entire sample period. This tells us of any unusual observed changes (Figure 2).

We find no evidence of a widespread contemporaneous negative effect on economic output across oil-importing countries, but rather value and volume increases in both imports and exports. It is only in the year after the shock that we find a negative impact on output for a small majority of countries.

Figure 2. Real GDP growth in oil shock episodes less median growth (1970-2010, in percent)

Small effects for oil importers

To analyse multiple countries and control for global conditions, we adapt the basic autoregressive model of Hamilton (2003, 2005).

Our main interest is in the effect of an oil price shock on the economy of a typical oil-importing country. Taking into account the fact that higher oil prices are generally positively associated with good global conditions, we find that the effect becomes larger and more significant as the ratio of oil imports to GDP increases (Figure 3).

To trace out the full impact of an oil shock, we calculate impulse responses for a 25% increase in oil prices (Figure 4). The results indicate that the typical oil importer can expect a cumulative GDP loss of about 0.3% over the first two years, with little subsequent impact. For countries with oil imports of more than 4% of GDP (ie at or above the average for middle- and low-income oil importers), however, the loss increases to about 0.8% – and this loss increases further for those with oil imports above 5% of GDP. In contrast to the oil importers, oil exporters show little impact on GDP in the first two years but then a substantial increase consistent with the positive income effect, with real GDP 0.6% higher three years after the initial shock.

Figure 3.

To put these numbers in perspective, it is useful to think of an economy where oil accounts for 4% of total expenditure and where aggregate spending is determined entirely by demand. If the quantity of oil consumption remains unchanged, then a 25% increase in the price of oil will cause spending on other items to decrease and, hence, real GDP to contract by 1% of the total. From this reference point, one would expect the possibility of substituting away from oil to reduce the overall impact on GDP. At the same time, there could also be factors working in the opposite direction, via, for example, confidence effects, market frictions, or changes in monetary policy. With our estimates of the GDP loss at only about half the level implied by the direct price effect on the import bill, the results presented here suggest the size of any such magnifying effects, if present, is not substantial across countries.

Are oil price increases really that bad?

Conventional wisdom has it that oil shocks are bad for oil-importing countries. This is grounded in the experience of slumps in many advanced economies during the 1970s. It is also consistent with the large body of research on the impact of higher oil prices on the US economy, although the magnitude and channels of the effect are still being debated.

Our recent research indicates that oil prices tend to be surprisingly closely associated with good times for the global economy. Indeed, we find that the US has been somewhat of an outlier in the way that it has been negatively affected by oil price increases. Across the world, oil price shock episodes have generally not been associated with a contemporaneous decline in output but, rather, with increases in both imports and exports. There is evidence of lagged negative effects on output, particularly for OECD economies, but the magnitude has typically been small.

Controlling for global economic conditions, and thus abstracting from our finding that oil price increases generally appear to be demand-driven, makes the impact of higher oil prices stand out more clearly. For a given level of world GDP, we do find that oil prices have a negative effect on oil-importing countries and also that cross-country differences in the magnitude of the impact depend to a large extent on the relative magnitude of oil imports. The effect is still not particularly large, however, with our estimates suggesting that a 25% increase in oil prices will typically cause a loss of real GDP in oil-importing countries of less than half of 1%, spread over 2 to 3 years.

These findings suggest that the higher import demand in oil-exporting countries resulting from oil price increases has an important contemporaneous offsetting effect on economic activity in the rest of the world, and that the adverse consequences are mostly relatively mild and occur with a lag.

The fact that the negative impact of higher oil prices has generally been quite small does not mean that the effect can be ignored. Some countries have clearly been negatively affected by high oil prices. Moreover, our results do not rule out more adverse effects from a future shock that is driven more by lower oil supply than the more demand-driven increases in oil prices that have been the norm over the past two decades. In terms of policy lessons, our findings suggest that efforts to reduce dependence on oil could help reduce the exposure to oil price shocks and hence costs associated with macroeconomic volatility. At the same time, given a certain level of oil imports, strengthening economic linkages to oil exporters could also work as a natural shock absorber.

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the authors and should not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or its management.

References

Barsky, Robert B and Lutz Kilian (2004), "Oil and the Macroeconomy since the 1970s", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(4):115-134.

Bernanke, Ben S, Mark Gertler, and Mark Watson (1997), "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 28(1):91-157.

Blanchard, Olivier J and Jordi Galí (2007), "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?", NBER Working Paper No. 13368.

Hamilton, James D (1983), "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II", Journal of Political Economy, 91(2):228-248.

Hamilton, James D (1996), "This is What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship", Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2):215-220.

Hamilton, James D (2003), "What is an Oil Shock?" Journal of Econometrics, 113(2): 363-398.

Hamilton, James D (2005), "Oil and the Macroeconomy" in S Durlaf and L Blume(eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, MacMillan, 2nd ed.

Hamilton, James D (2009), "The Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08", NBER Working Paper No. 15002.

Rasmussen, Tobias N and Agustin Roitman (2011), “Oil Shocks in a Global Perspective: Are they Really that Bad?”, IMF Working Paper WP/11/194.

In the review of the BP view of energy supply over the next 20 years, I noted that BP anticipated that Europe would be largely self-sufficient in Energy:
we foresee both the Americas and Eurasia - or Europe including Russia and the former Soviet Union - achieving self-sufficiency in energy

Foregoing, as yet, a review of the FSU states that lie south of Russia, the initial question that this series is, at present, seeking to examine is how sustainable, or how much potential for growth lies in Russian oil and gas production.

The major Russian oil basins (EIA)

This progressive review of Russian major oil developments has moved from Baku and the Northern Caucasus, through the Urals-Volga region into Western Siberia, and thence via Eastern Siberia to Sakhalin Island. This has been a steady progression East, and one might otherwise suspect that Russia might continue this movement, as current major fields start to play out. Unfortunately that would move exploration and development east across the Bering Sea and in 1868, for $7.2 million in gold, Tsar Alexander II sold Alaska to the United States, and much of that resource has now been developed. (And as an aside the Alaskan pipeline averaged a flow of 624,716 bd in January, enough to keep it out of trouble this winter, we hope).

So if Russia cannot move further East, then the option remaining is to move north. And that brings us initially to the fields of the Timan-Pechora Basin, which the Rosneft subsidiary Severnaya Neft ships out of Arkhangelsk, and the oil that Lukoil and their partners produce, which ship out of the Varandey Oil Export Terminal on the Barents Sea. The total basin is now producing at around 640 kbd, of which some 540 kbd is being exported.

The Varandey Oil Terminal (Lukoil)

It is expected that the terminal will also provide a path for JSC Zarubezhneft who is just starting production in the Central Khorovey Uplift. The fields are anticipated to produce some 800 million barrels of oil, but over a 57-year period, with maximum production only reaching 128 kbd in 2021. (The Vietnamese have part of this project).

The fields of the Timan-Pechora Basin (after Blackbourn)

Back in 1999 the USGS estimated that the total extractable reserve was around 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent (bboe) of which 66% was oil. Part of the problem in defining how this ranks relative to the table that I posted when writing about Western Siberia comes from the regions in which the basin lies.

Russian production in 2009, broken down by region (the total is 10.48 mbd) (EIA)

Timan-Pechora lies in the Komi Republic, the Nenetsk Autonomous Okrug and in the Arkhangelsk region, so that presumably one adds numbers in the table above to get the total production from the basin. Most of the production, to date, has been onshore, though some 3.38 bboe of the total reserves are anticipated to lie above the Arctic Circle.

RN-Severnaya Neft drilling rig in the Timan-Pechora Basin (RN-Severnaya Neft)

RN-Severnaya Neft is producing from 17 fields, with most production centered around the Baganskaya and Val Gumburtseva regions, for a total of 82 kbd in 2010 from 277 wells, with 10 added in 2010. They also have a joint venture with ConocoPhilips known as Polar Lights which had an average daily output of 14 kbd in 2010, though rising, from initial development in 2008. However this is from 28 wells, but they only appear to be adding one well a year.

The major producer in the region is Lukoil who are producing the recently discovered Bayandyskoye field with a planned production of 150 kbd, with reserves of 200 million boe. They have since found a second new discovery of comparable magnitude last November in the Vostochno-Lanbeshorsky field.

It is through discoveries like these that is anticipated that production will rise, overall. However some of the increase will come as production moves offshore, into the Trebs and Titov fields.

The development of the two offshore fields was originally licensed to Bashneft-Polus, but Lukoil has just bought 25.1% of that company for $150 million. (On a rough measure each field is considered to hold about half-a-billion barrels of reserves.) It has been estimated that it will require between $5 and $6 billion to develop the fields and Lukoil may need the boost in production, since it saw oil production fall 5.5% last year. This was partly due to a lower than anticipated yield from the Yuzhno-Khilchuyu field being developed with ConocoPhilips. The anticipated production from that field was expected to be 150 kbd, with reserves of around 500 million barrels. The total acreage that the partnership controls is, however, greater than the current development, and contains other fields within the Naryanmarneftfaz collaboration.

Areas where ConocoPhilips are invested in Timan-Pechora (ConocoPhilips)

Total production levels from Timan-Pechora are projected to reach levels of around 750 kbd by 2020. Yet, as with Eastern Siberia and Sakhalin Island production in these fields is not going to be that easy. Back in 2005 John Grace (Russian Oil Supply) described it thus:
Geography also dealt the basin a very severe climate. It is substantially north of the oil-producing area of West Siberia and its proximity to the Arctic Ocean makes it snowier and windier. With the exception of the Yamburg gas field in northern West Siberia, nowhere in Russia is a substantial volume of oil or gas produced from a worse place to work.

Production increases that are being discussed are only on the order of 100 – 200 kbd, and will require production from a number of fields to provide that volume. While the quality of the oil coming from Timan-Pechora is high, thus helping Russian income, the incremental volumes will not do a lot to provide that sustained production from Russia that the world seems to anticipate will happen.

Why $200 oil is the subprime mortgage of energy What does an oil price shock have to do with subprime mortgages? Well, consider this: the global economy found itself on the edge of the abyss in 2008 when reality — in the form of wildly overvalued mortgage securities — landed hard on the illusion that real estate-related investments were a guaranteed, perpetual cash machine.

So what do you think might happen when a different reality — in the form of wildly undervalued eco-services and energy-related externalities — comes crashing down on the illusion that there’s no need to steer away from business as usual in an increasingly resource-strained world?

Crude Oil Rises to Nine-Month High Amid Optimism on U.S. Economy, Greece “We’ve had a strong week and there’s strong upward momentum,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The headlines are what’s driving this market and if they point to a better economy, prices will rise. It looks like a Greek deal is going to finally get done.”

Peak Oil (In Euros, That Is) The euro’s dwindling purchasing power is both a result of the Continent’s financial woes and a factor tightening the screws. Worse, hot spots like Greece and Spain are particularly exposed due to a high dependence on oil imports. Geopolitics compounds this: Greece relies on Iranian oil for 30% of consumption, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Contrast that with the U.S., where net imports of oil have fallen significantly.

Has the United States beaten peak oil? Not so fast. In the past five years, warnings about peak oil have gained a lot of traction. U.S. oil production, after all, has fallen sharply since 1970. Global oil output has plateaued of late, even as China and India are demanding ever more crude. And that’s all caused prices to soar.

Yet the recent shale-oil boom in North Dakota has some analysts brushing off this gloomy perspective. A new research note (pdf) from Citigroup argues that the recent surge in North American production has “buried” the peak-oil hypothesis. New drilling technology has allowed companies to extract oil from once-inaccessible shale rock, which has, in turn, allowed the U.S. to slash its oil imports dramatically. What’s more, there are tantalizing shale deposits all around the world — in Argentina, Australia, and even France. So does that mean that, as the Citigroup analysts say, the peak-oil hypothesis is “dead”? Well, not so fast.

Big Oil Wants to Kill the Keystone XL Pipeline With America on the verge of achieving energy independence in the next five years by dramatically expanding domestic energy production, why should anyone be surprised that it’s Big Oil money that’s out to kill the Keystone XL Pipeline to prevent competition.

Is there really so much shale gas in the ground? Shale gas fever has overtaken America, but we have seen this sort of mania before.

In 2003 and 2004, a "hydrogen economy" was touted as the Next Big Thing. The United States was poised to run its 240 million cars and trucks on it some day, and wean itself off of oil. California would lead the way, putting half a million hydrogen vehicles on the road and building 200 fueling stations by 2010. Today, after the expenditure of around $2 billion of public funds, the U.S. has just two-dozen fueling stations and 500 hydrogen vehicles, plus only modest progress in fuels cells. There is no longer mainstream discussion of a hydrogen economy.

Gas buoys Qatar plans Five years ago, half a dozen cars at a traffic light in Qatar’s capital Doha would lead to mutterings about how crowded the city was becoming. Now bumper-to-bumper traffic often clogs a seafront dominated by gleaming skyscrapers. At night, tastefully lit buildings exude opulence, and wooden dhows plying the water are the only obvious sign of the past.

But this change is nothing compared with the transformation that the country’s rulers plan over the next decade. Throw in its aspirations to be a regional peacebroker, and it is no exaggeration to call Qatar the world’s most ambitious country.

Aramco, Pertamina mull refining, petrochem project (Reuters) - Saudi Aramco Asia Co Ltd, a subsidiary of oil giant Saudi Aramco signed an initial deal with Indonesia's state energy firm, PT Pertamina to look into building a refining and petrochemicals project in Indonesia, Aramco said on Saturday.

Sudan, Saudi, and the cheering on the U.S. oil patch Consider the latest news from the Middle East and North Africa, and one grasps why many U.S. oil and geopolitical analysts are cheering what they see as a prospect that the country will seriously trim its oil imports.

At the Financial Times, Javier Blas describes a drop in Saudi Arabia's pivotal capacity for bailing out the global oil market in a pinch, quoting a new report by the International Energy Agency; the IEA says natural oil field decline has eroded Saudi's spare production capacity. Nearby in Iran, the standoff with the West has resulted in a 15 percent risk premium on top of market oil prices, writes Bloomberg's Ayesha Daya; traders worry of a loss of much oil to the market should the tension escalate.

Barak Says Iran Sanctions Have Further to Go Before Military Strike Needed Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak called for “tight, ratcheted up” sanctions against Iran to force the country to abandon its nuclear ambitions and said the political process had further to go before a military strike.

“We’re still in the sanctions stage and we expect them to become even more tight,” Barak said at a press conference today in Tokyo at the end of a four-day visit. “I think there is consensus in most capitals of the world that Iran should not be allowed to turn into a nuclear military power.”

Syrian forces fire on funeral in Damascus, 1 dead BEIRUT (AP) – Syrian security forces fired live rounds and tear gas at thousands of people marching Saturday in a funeral procession that turned into a protest in Damascus, killing at least one person, activists said. It was one of the largest demonstrations in the capital since the 11-month-old uprising against President Bashar Assad began.

London-based oil executive linked to 9/11 hijackers A Saudi Arabian accused of associating with several of the September 11 hijackers and who disappeared from his home in the United States a few weeks before the attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon, is in London working for his country’s state oil company.

Nathan Cullen chastised at Enbridge hearing Two days of hearings for Enbridge's Northern Gateway Project got off to a rocky start Friday in Prince Rupert, B.C., amid more opposition by First Nations and a prominent local politician.

Moex Agrees to Pay $90 Million to Settle U.S. Gulf of Mexico Spill Claims Mitsui & Co.’s MOEX Offshore 2007 LLC will pay $90 million to the U.S. and five states to settle pollution violations related to 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill while BP Plc (BP/) and its drilling fluid provider for the Macondo well agreed to dismiss claims against each other.

Fire at Cherry Point refinery might boost gas prices CHERRY POINT, Whatcom County — A large fire broke out Friday at the BP refinery at Cherry Point, creating a plume of black smoke visible for miles.

Shell Clears Major Hurdle in Its Bid for New Arctic Drilling In a crucial step toward the ultimate approval of new oil drilling off the North Slope of Alaska, the Interior Department on Friday tentatively approved Shell’s plans for responding to a potential spill in the frigid Arctic waters.

Crews continue work at Alaska well blowout site ANCHORAGE, Alaska - The state Department of Environmental Conservation says air monitors show that no natural gas has accumulated at the site of an exploratory well blowout on Alaska's North Slope.

A crew drilling on a lease held by Repsol E&P USA Inc. on Wednesday penetrated a pressurized pocket of natural gas at 2,523 feet. The resulting kickback spewed out gas and an estimated 42,000 gallons of freshwater-based drilling fluid onto three acres.

Int’l arbitration panel tells Ecuador to hold off on $18B fine against Chevron in Amazon case QUITO, Ecuador — An international arbitration panel has provisionally ordered Ecuador not to allow Amazon rainforest residents to collect $18 billion that an Ecuadorean court ordered Chevron Corp. to pay them for contamination.

Goodnight Sunshine Germany once prided itself on being the “photovoltaic world champion”, doling out generous subsidies—totaling more than $130 billion, according to research from Germany’s Ruhr University—to citizens to invest in solar energy. But now the German government is vowing to cut the subsidies sooner than planned and to phase out support over the next five years. What went wrong?

Subsidizing green technology is affordable only if it is done in tiny, tokenistic amounts. Using the government’s generous subsidies, Germans installed 7.5 gigawatts of photovoltaic capacity last year, more than double what the government had deemed “acceptable.” It is estimated that this increase alone will lead to a $260 hike in the average consumer’s annual power bill.

First Solar Climbs After Antelope Project Permit Issue Resolved First Solar Inc., the biggest maker of thin-film solar panels, climbed the most in three weeks after resolving a Los Angeles County permitting issue for a $1.36 billion power project, paving the way for financing to resume.

A Different Kind of Beekeeping Takes Flight Much of the honey eaten in the United States and Europe comes from the European honeybee. But Apis mellifera and the handful of other species in the honeybee family aren’t the only ones that make this sugary treat. A much larger and more diverse group called stingless bees also produce honey — and they’re creating a stir among beekeepers and researchers worldwide as pollinators and as a newfound source of food and medicinal products.

The Obama Administration's War On Particulate Emissions Greg Ip has a piece in the Economist noting (surprise surprise) that the Obama administration's Office of Informational and Regulatory Affairs takes a friendlier approach to environmental regulations than did the Bush administration version of OIRA.

Heartland Institute faces fresh scrutiny over tax status The Guardian has learned of a whistleblower complaint to the Internal Revenue Service about Heartland's 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status.

There was also a call from a group of climate scientists who have personally been on the receiving end of attacks from Heartland and bloggers funded by the thinktank, and whose email was posted online after a notorious 2009 hack, for Heartland to "recognise how its attacks on science and scientists have poisoned the debate about climate change policy," in a letter made available exclusively to the Guardian.

Pro Tip: Even If Someone Has Faked A Damaging Memo About Your Organization, Don't Threaten To Sue Anyone Who 'Comments' On It Now, I don't care what you think of Heartland, climate change or anything along those lines. Whether you think it's a wonderful organization or an evil organization... one thing I would hope we could agree on is that threatening people for "commenting" on documents with legal action, even if the documents later turn out to be fake, is not a good idea.

Carbon Trading Volume Rose to Record in EU December Permits Carbon trading in benchmark December European Union emissions permits had the busiest ever day yesterday as prices surged.

The volume of EU December 2012 carbon futures leaped 64 percent to a record 30,928 lots, or 30.9 million metric tons, on ICE Futures Europe in London. Open interest, or the number of outstanding contracts, rose by 1.4 percent to 353.1 million tons, exchange data show. The contract’s price rose 7.7 percent yesterday, its biggest gain since Dec. 20.

A Second Front in the Climate War Year after year, the world’s nations gather to find ways to reduce carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, with little meaningful progress. Frustrated by this slow pace, the United States and five other countries announced this week a modest but potentially game-changing initiative to cut three other pollutants that also contribute significantly to climate change.

Citigroup Says Peak Oil Is Dead Citigroup announced to the world Thursday that peak oil is dead. The controversial idea that world crude oil production is almost at its peak and will soon begin an irrevocable long-term decline has been laid to rest in the highly productive shale oil formations of North Dakota, with potentially big consequences for oil prices, the bank said.

However, despite this reading of last rites, the data suggest it would be premature to pronounce this patient dead.

Changes in oil markets in the past decade have given significant traction to the argument that world oil production is close to peaking. Despite the huge incentive of a near-threefold increase in the price of benchmark Brent crude from 2000 to 2010, the world barely managed to eke out a 10% increase in crude oil production, according to BP data.

The End of the Peak Oil Theory Last week I got caught up in a show from a few years ago called "Mega Disasters: Oil Apocalypse" on The History Channel, spelling out the doom our economy was facing as oil production declined over the next 100 years. Domestic production was already declining, and we had no plan B. Stock up on canned soup and ammo while you still can!

If you haven't noticed, the oil apocalypse has been delayed -- again -- and the doomsday predictors are undoubtedly eating crow while they concoct another mega disaster. "Peak oil," the theory that oil production will soon hit a peak and begin declining, sending the world into an economic disaster, failed to live up to its hype again.

American Oil Shale to Kick Off New Economic Era Founded in 1924, the World Energy Council is an international congress of scientists and energy resource experts that gathers once every three years to discuss the topic of energy: its current state and its future.

At their Rome meeting in 2007, this unsponsored, politically-unbiased pool of experts delivered in its 600-page Survey of Energy Resources Report the most significant statement ever issued by the group since its inception.

Crude Oil Set for Biggest Weekly Gain This Year on U.S. Economy, Greek Aid Oil rose for a third day in New York, heading for the biggest weekly gain this year, as signs of an improving U.S. economy and progress on a bailout for Greece bolstered the outlook for fuel demand. Brent touched an eight- month high.

West Texas Intermediate futures climbed as much as 0.6 percent today and have gained 4.1 percent this week, the most since the five days ended Dec. 23. U.S. applications for jobless payments fell to the lowest since 2008, the Labor Department said yesterday. European governments are considering cutting interest rates on emergency loans to Greece and using European Central Bank contributions to plug a financing gap for the second bailout, two people familiar with the discussions said.

Prices at the pump soar ... and it's only February Gas prices are back on the rise, and some analysts say it could get even worse before the summer driving season.

Payroll tax cut, meet $4 gas The payroll tax cut is more of a cushion than a stimulus for the U.S. economy. With higher fuel prices, that cushion may already be deflating.

Consumer Prices in U.S. Likely Rose in January on Fuel The cost of living in the U.S. probably rose in January by the most in four months, boosted by higher prices for food and energy, economists said before a report today.

Saudi Aramco to Re-Open Oldest Field to Tap Heavy Oil, EIU Saudi Arabian Oil Co. plans to re- open the Gulf kingdom’s oldest oil field and produce there for the first time in 30 years as the company boosts output of heavy crude, the Economist Intelligence Unit said.

The state-owned producer, known as Saudi Aramco, may revive a plan from 2008 to restore production at the mothballed Dammam field, the EIU said in a report. Dammam contains some 500 million barrels of oil and may yield as much as 100,000 barrels a day of Arabian Heavy crude, according to the report.

Encana Strikes $2.9 Billion Shale Deal With Mitsubishi The shale-gas buying spree continues.

The Encana Corporation, a Canadian natural gas producer, said on Thursday that it had formed a partnership with Mitsubishi, receiving an investment from the Japanese conglomerate worth 2.9 billion Canadian dollars, or $2.9 billion. In return, Encana has sold Mitsubishi a 40 percent stake in its holdings at Cutbank Ridge in British Columbia, where the Canadian company owns about 409,000 net acres.

US, Mexico Close To 'Major' Oil-Drilling Practices Pact WASHINGTON -- The U.S. is close to signing a "major agreement" with Mexico that establishes oil-drilling practices in the Gulf of Mexico, a shared body of water where both countries could be affected by spills, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said Thursday.

Norway's DNO to restart Yemeni oil output as strike ends (Reuters) - DNO is about to restart production at several oil fields in Yemen after striking state pipeline workers there decided to go back to work, the Norwegian oil firm said on Friday.

Enbridge says Line 5 returned to service (Reuters) - Enbridge Inc on Friday said it returned its 491,000 barrel-a-day Line 5 oil pipeline to service after repairing a leak in Michigan.

Gazprom Chases China, India as European Demand Falters: Russia Overnight OAO Gazprom (OGZPY), the world’s largest natural gas producer, will strive to forge supply deals with India and China this year as it seeks to win customers outside of Europe, where demand is waning.

How Chinese Energy Politics Will Reshape the Middle East China’s going to import a lot more oil from Iran and the Arab world over the next two decades. America will import far less. Those two facts will profoundly change the geopolitics of the Middle East.

China’s Arctic Powerplay The United States is shifting its focus from the Atlantic across to the Pacific. However, if an Arctic century is on the horizon, then China is at the forefront of it. While Washington enhances its relationships across the Asia-Pacific basin, Beijing is busy engaging Arctic Ocean coastal states en masse. The Middle Kingdom is apparently interested in the commercial viability of new shipping lanes and developing the resources that lie underneath and along the Arctic seabed. Ostensibly to achieve its objectives, China is engaging the region at an unprecedented pace. Beijing’s comprehensive engagement of Arctic states demonstrates that China’s ambition isn't just to be a Pacific power, but a global one. Questions that remain are: what is Beijing’s intention in the Arctic, and by extension what type of global power will China be?

Argentina's YPF to pay debt, resume trade-source YPF, Argentina's biggest energy company, will shortly pay a tax debt that prompted authorities to ban it from foreign trade, meaning imports and exports should not be significantly affected, a source with knowledge of the case said on Thursday.

Coal India May Revive Fuel Imports to Comply With Prime Minister’s Order Coal India Ltd., the world’s biggest producer of the commodity, may revive plans to import the fuel to comply with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s order to increase supplies to utilities and avoid paying penalties.

“Coal India will have to supply the coal even if they don’t have domestic production, and this is going to force them to import,” said Kamlesh Kotak, vice president of research at Asian Markets Securities Pvt. in Mumbai. “The company is being driven into a corner to boost the power sector.”

Shipping executive: Picking up Iranian crude 'is like getting leprosy' (CNN) -- Russian steel, Ukrainian maize, tea from India, palm oil from Malaysia -- myriad products are shipped through the Gulf emirates. Iran wants and needs them all. But in the last few months, the growing web of U.S. and European sanctions has begun to paralyze its ability to import and export key products.

Multiple banking, shipping and trade sources tell CNN that Iran is struggling to import staples and export crude oil as its access to the global financial system is curbed. As a result, inflation is rising and shortages of basic products are growing.

Japan refiners eye force majeure clause for Iran oil contracts (Reuters) - Japanese refiners should consider having a force majeure clause in term crude contracts with Iran in case they have difficulties making payments in the face of pressure from U.S. sanctions, the industry's top official said on Friday.

The United States, angry over Iran's nuclear programme, wants Japan's oil industry to cut back on Iranian imports but Japan must import swathes of oil in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear crisis and the country's refiners have yet to make significant cuts.

Greek dependence on Iranian oil proves latest headache for EU ATHENS : Add the prospect of running out of oil to the mountain of problems that Greece is already facing.

Iran's threat this week to cut off oil to some European countries before a boycott planned for July would do little harm to the continent's powerhouse countries. But Greece has been heavily dependent on Iran's oil, which it buys on generous terms of credit, crucial when few others trust Greece to ever pay them back.

So Much for Sanctions: China, Iran Iron Out Oil Agreement China has, at least for now, dashed any hopes that it plans to obey tighter U.S. sanctions against Iran after hammering out an agreement to resume some imports of Iranian crude.

State-owned Unipec, one of China’s top importers, reached an agreement with National Iranian Oil Co. earlier this week to renew an annual supply contract that had lapsed at the end of the year.

Shelling continues in Syria as protesters hit the streets Homs, Syria (CNN) -- Shelling continued in the besieged Syrian city of Homs early Friday and demonstrators hit the streets, a day after the United Nations General Assembly passed a non-binding resolution condemning the brutal government crackdown on anti-government protesters.

The shelling in the flashpoint city marks the 14th consecutive day of constant bombardment as Syrian forces targeted stronghold neighborhoods of Baba Amr, Inshaat and Khailidya.

Report: Venezuela's Chavez ships fuel to Syria regime, undermining sanctions The government of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is emerging as a rare supplier of diesel to Syria, potentially undermining Western sanctions and helping the Syrian government fuel its military in the middle of a bloody crackdown on civilian protests.

A cargo of diesel, which can be used to fuel army tanks or as heating fuel, was expected to arrive at Syria's Mediterranean port of Banias this week, according to two traders and shipping data reported by Reuters. The cargo could be worth up to $50 million.

Revolution brings instability to Sinai Peninsula The overthrow of dictator Hosni Mubarak a year ago was followed by a dwindling of the presence of Egyptian security forces, giving the Bedouins more authority over their lives. Egypt analysts say it has also led to more lawlessness, making the peninsula known for its smuggling routes a possible trouble spot for extremism and banditry.

"Throughout history, few people have paid much attention to the Sinai and that's part of the problem," said Bruce Hoffman, professor and director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies Program at George Washington University. "It is an area of neglect potentially becoming much more dangerous."

Japan's nuclear safety standards called flawed TOKYO (AP) — Japan's nuclear safety chief said Wednesday the country's regulations are flawed, outdated and below global standards, and he apologized for their failure when a tsunami crippled one plant last year.

Heinberg’s serious message has silver lining World-renowned "Peak Oil" expert Richard Heinberg packed the 100 Mile House Community Hall on Feb. 8 to deliver his seriously troubling message that economic growth is effectively over.

The audience of 220 all stayed to hear there is a silver lining if we can curb our spending on credit and apply principles of sustainability to our resources. People came to the event to hear what we can do, locally and globally, to begin to live within our means and preserve resources for the future.

Oil refineries: Sustainable communities for the post-oil world? A '100% self-supporting housing solution for the post-oil world,' the Oil Silo Home concept makes use of the thousands of oil storage units that will inevitably be abandoned in the peak oil era.

Al Gore takes aim at "unsustainable" capitalism LONDON (Reuters) - Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore wants to end the default practice of quarterly earnings guidance and explore issuing loyalty-driven securities as part of an overhaul of capitalism which he says has turned many of the world's largest economies into hotbeds of irresponsible short-term investment.

Together with David Blood, senior partner of 'green' fund firm Generation Investment Management, the environmental activist has crafted a blueprint for "sustainable capitalism" he wants the financial industry to adopt to support lasting economic growth.

For Mexico City, a Repurposed Landfill In developing countries, closing a landfill often means just that: locking the gate and walking away.

But when Mexico City’s government shut down the giant Bordo Poniente landfill last December, officials announced that they had a full-blown plan for the site. As I wrote on Friday in The New York Times, the city aims to capture the methane gas produced by the landfill to fuel a power plant that could supply electricity to as many as 35,000 homes.

Larger Turbines May Help China’s Wind Developers, Ming Yang Says Developers of wind-power projects in China are increasing installations of larger capacity turbines to reduce costs in the world’s biggest market, the chief executive officer of China Ming Yang Wind Power Group Ltd. said.

Tracking How the World Guzzles Water With the world’s freshwater supplies under mounting pressure from pollution and galloping consumption, understanding the how, where and why of water use is more important than ever.

To that end, scientists from the University of Twente in the Netherlands have released a new study analyzing the quantity and distribution of global water use from 1996 to 2005.

U.S. Pushes to Cut Emissions of Some Pollutants That Hasten Climate Change WASHINGTON — Impatient with the slow pace of international climate change negotiations, a small group of countries led by the United States is starting a program to reduce emissions of common pollutants that contribute to rapid climate change and widespread health problems.

Leak Offers Glimpse of Campaign Against Climate Science A spokesman for Microsoft, another listed donor, said that the company believes that “climate change is a serious issue that demands immediate worldwide action.” The company is shown in the documents as having contributed $59,908 last year to a Heartland technology newsletter. But the Microsoft spokesman, Mark Murray, said the gift was not a cash contribution but rather the value of free software, which Microsoft gives to thousands of nonprofit groups.

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the Heartland documents was what they did not contain: evidence of contributions from the major publicly traded oil companies, long suspected by environmentalists of secretly financing efforts to undermine climate science.

Web leak shows trail of climate sceptic funding THE paper trail connecting the climate change sceptic movement in Australia and the conservative US expert panel the Heartland Institute goes back at least to 2009, documents released on the internet this week show.

Heartland Institute says leaked climate change documents were stolen, fake Heartland Institute, a think tank in Chicago known for its undermining of climate change, announced Wednesday that leaked lists of high-profile donors and details of future projects to discredit global warming were "stolen" and that at least one was fake, according to a statement from the organization.

Bay Area Climate Change Plans Lack Regional Cooperation Unless municipalities coordinate efforts to prepare for climate change, cities’ plans to protect themselves from rising seas and other changes could make matters worse for their neighbors.

Today's post goes into the global consumption of energy and provides a dataset in excel for researchers from 1830 to 2010 on global primary energy consumption. In other words, the energy contained in fossil fuels, uranium, and biomass in their raw form before processing into electricity, heat or liquid fuel and direct electricity production from hydro, solar, wind, and geothermal. The dataset, based on an assessment of seven different data sources, shows the following:

• We are now burning 10 times as much energy as a century ago to provide the goods and services we consume.
• Energy consumption is still increasing rapidly, with an approximate 550 exajoules (523 Quadrillion BTU's) consumed at the primary energy level in 2010.
• Of this total 80% was provided by fossil fuels, 11.3% by bio-energy mainly from wood combustion, 5.5% from nuclear, 2.2% from hydro, and <0.4% from other renewable energy sources.
• The historic time for each energy source to grow from 1 to 10 exajoules in primary energy production was 12 years for nuclear, 33 years for crude oil, 39 years for natural gas, 52 years for coal, and 59 years for hydro-power.

A graphical depiction of the data and comparison of sources can be found below the fold

The charts below can be found in the excel file, source attribution can be found at the bottom. The data in the charts is normally displayed in exajoules (10^18 joules) and in a few cases in Quadrillion (10^15) BTU's for data comparison. The following conversion factors were used:

• 1 joule = 9.48×10−4 BTU.
• 1 boe (barrel of oil equivalent) = 5.45 x 106 BTU.
• 1 cubic feet of natural gas = 983 BTU.
• 1 metric ton of coal = 22.72 * 106 BTU.
• 1 exajoule = 174 million barrels of oil equivalent.

A few notes on calculations made to make a data comparison:

• The dataset displays primary energy for oil, gas, and coal, as well as nuclear power. To obtain primary energy data for nuclear power electricity produced has been adjusted for the efficiency losses assuming a 33% efficiency factor, as per IEA standards.
• The historic data for bio-energy from Fernandes (2007) and Smil (2010) is calculated by estimating the average energy use per person for a large number of countries, multiplying this value with the population, and adjusting for other energy sources. In this manner a reasonable estimate can be obtained for bio-energy consumption across historic time. Smil (2010) covers not more than a dozen countries in this manner, while Fernandes (2007) covers more than a hundred and is more complete in his decadal time series.
• The data for coal is normally best taken in million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) as this filters out the energy differences between coals, as opposed to taking data in million tonnes of coal. To convert these values to joules/btu's the lower heating value of the coal was used. Similarly for Natural gas the values were for BP Statistical Review (2011) converted from cubic feet to BTU's and exajoules using lower heating values.
• To convert installed solar pv, geothermal, and wind power capacity to electricity produced a number of conversion factors were applied. For solar a capacity rating of 15% was assumed, for wind a capacity rating of 23.4%, and for geothermal 90%. In case of hydropower no conversion efficiency loss has been applied in the data.

Global Primary Energy Consumption per source stacked and individual graphs

The first two charts in this section display the evolution of primary energy consumption broken down by energy sources. Figure one shows the evolution from 1830 to 2010 and figure two from 1970 to 2010. The same is shown in figures 3 and 4 but by the individual curves of each energy source.

Figure 1 - Stacked chart of Global Primary Energy Consumption 1830 - 2010

Figure 2 - Stacked chart of Global Primary Energy Consumption 1970 - 2010

Figure 3 - Individual curves for energy sources of Global Primary Energy Consumption 1830 - 2010

Figure 4 - Individual curves for energy sources of Global Primary Energy Consumption 1970 - 2010

Growth path comparison of Primary Energy delivered per source

In this section a dataset is graphically depicted wherein a comparison is made of the number of years for each energy source to grow from 1 exajoule to 10 exajoule of energy production. By comparing these it can be shown how long different energy sources took to become influential in global energy supply.

Figure 5 - Energy Source Growth Path comparison 1 to 10 exajoules

Comparison of different Primary Energy Data sources

Below four charts are shown which outline the differences between datasets for bio-energy (biomass + biofuel), coal, natural gas and crude oil. The main differences in the datasets can be found in the years after 2000 for biofuels, 1950 to 2000 for natural gas, and 1945 to present for crude oil.

Figure 6 - Global Primary Energy from Bio-Energy comparing Smil and Fernandes 1900 to 2008

Figure 7 - Global Primary Energy from coal comparing Krausmann, Anonymous Source, and BP Statistical Review 1900 to 2008

Figure 8 - Global Primary Energy from Natural Gas comparing Krausmann, Anonymous Source, and BP Statistical Review 1900 to 2008

Figure 9 - Global Primary Energy from Crude Oil comparing O&G Journal, IHS Energy, Anonymous Source, Krausmann, and BP Statistical Review 1930 to 2005

Sources of data

Anonymous Source - Book reference not available due to permanent library closure
BP Statistical Review - BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011
Fernandes - Fernandes et al. 2007. Global Biofuel Use 1850 - 2000. Global Biogeochemical cycles. Vol. 21
IHS Energy - old petroconsultants database
Krausmann - Krausmann et al., 2009. Growth in material use, GDP and population during the 21st century. Ecological Economics. 68
Oil & Gas Journal - Oil & Gas Journal
Smil - Smil, V., 2010. Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects. Praeger: Santa Barbara, California